Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Ruta de la Plata (Zamora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Zamora		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.7
	2.08	3.05	3.5
	2.06	3.07	3.92
	1.34	4.82	8.34	Watch
	2.1	2.8	3.3
	2.1	2.94	3.53
	2	3.05	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.05)	3.25 ↑ (3.05)	4.26 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zamora
48.6%

Draw
29.2%

Real Madrid Castilla
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29.9%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.8%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zamora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamora than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Zamora - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sobron F. (G) 14. Claveria P. 2. Luengo Herrera L. M. 20. Codina M. 3. Merchan D. 15. Buron L. 10. Ramos C. 16. Lozano M. 19. Monerris A. 17. Carbonell J. 7. Kike	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 3. Valdepenas V. 21. Aguado D. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 27. Pitarch T. 7. Yanez D. 8. Angel M. (C) 10. Palacios C. 37. Gines A.
Substitutes
9. Eslava J. 18. Farrell J. 6. Garcia M. 23. Lopez S. 8. Lucero R. 13. Pereda A. (G) 5. Ruiz E. 22. Sancho J. 27. Sy M.	23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 20. Fortuny P. 6. Perea C. 13. Sunico G. (G) 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Kike ⚽,
12', Lozano M. 🟨,
45+1', Valdepenas V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Yanez D. ⚽,
55', Merchan D. 🟨,
61', Monerris A. ↓, Eslava J. ↑,
61', Carbonell J. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Cestero Sancho J. ⚽,
73', Claveria P. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
79', Buron L. 🟨,
83', Ramos C. ↓, Farrell J. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Kike (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zamora may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zamora CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.11.25	Osasuna B - Zamora	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Zamora - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Ferrol - Zamora	1:0 ✺
12.11.25	Zamora - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Pontevedra - Zamora	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLTL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
15.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLW

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