The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Real Madrid Castilla 54.7%
Draw 26.7%
CD Guadalajara 18.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
53.6%
27.7%
18.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
54.4%
27.3%
18.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 6. Perea C. 30. Mesonero D. 8. Angel M. (C) 10. Palacios C. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.
1. Zarco A. (G) 4. Ablanque J. 5. Gallardo D. 7. Neskes 8. Calvo T. 11. Alvarez U. 14. Tavares R. 15. Rodriguez V. 18. Martinez J. 19. Munoz P. 24. Caropitche S. M.
Substitutes
33. Castrelo G. 38. Diego 17. Fortea J. 20. Fortuny P. 34. Lezcano A. 29. Ortega J. 13. Sunico G. (G)
9. Canizo A. 23. Casado J. 16. Cera 20. Diaz B. 3. Moreno A. 21. Ramirez M. 6. Rojo P. 22. Samuel 13. Vicente D. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Neskes 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Caropitche S. M. ⚽,
40', Angel M. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Jimenez D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Calvo T. 🟨,
48', 🟨,
49', 2 - 1, Mesonero D. ⚽,
61', 3 - 1, Zuniga L. ⚽,
67', Neskes ↓, Samuel ↑,
67', Munoz P. ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
77', Tavares R. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
77', Caropitche S. M. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
83', Diaz B. 🟨,
89', 🟨,
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 17 in the zone Relegation).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 3.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 2.5:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 3:1.7).
Spain
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Fran (G) 
Zuniga L. 
Caropitche S. M. 
Diego 
