Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Unión Magdalena		Real Santander

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.41	4.25	6.9
	1.42	4.48	7.43
	1.41	4.44	7.31	Watch
	1.4	3.9	6.5
	1.46	4.35	6.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.31)	4.28 ↓ (4.84)	6.93 ↓ (9.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
65.1%

Draw
21.6%

Real Santander
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

19.2%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.2%

18.1%

9.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión Magdalena's form might have worsened.

Real Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Santander than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Unión Magdalena - Real Santander Predictions

Users Predictions: Unión Magdalena will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mojica D. (G) 17. Arrieta G. 23. Congo J. 22. Giraldo J. 9. Iguaran C. 27. Lerma J. 3. Mera D. 10. Mercado J. (C) 6. Ortiz D. 5. Penaloza J. 20. Vasquez J.	1. Mora J. (C) 21. Bustamante W. 13. Caicedo L. 29. Carrasco J. 11. Diaz M. 3. Duran C. 27. Guillen Sanchez J. D. 30. Perez J. 24. Rangel L. 7. Rueda Juan 31. Tapia D.
Substitutes
34. Acevedo H. (G) 2. Ballesteros M. 26. Banqueth I. 19. Diaz K. 30. Di Lucca G. 15. Narvaez L. 14. Pinto J. 25. Sagrera W. 16. Surmay O.	19. Ahumada S. 39. Almeida V. 36. Ayala J. 16. Hernandez J. 12. Lazaro J. (G) 35. Montero Alarcon F. 2. Perez J. 25. Segura A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Lerma J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 🟨,
58', Giraldo J. ↓, Surmay O. ↑,
69', Ortiz D. 🟨,
74', Iguaran C. ↓, Narvaez L. ↑,
74', Mercado J. ↓, Ballesteros M. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Narvaez L. ⚽,
82', Lerma J. ↓, Banqueth I. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 4.

Unión Magdalena is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Santander is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Unión Magdalena is the obvious favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:18. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.7:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	U. Magdalena	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12
13	Real Santander	11	2	6	3	13:18	-5	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera B
22.03.26	Real Cartagena - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Patriotas	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Cundinamarca	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Deportes Quindío - Unión Magdalena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWTWW
- Real Santander
Colombian Primera B
21.03.26	Real Santander - Tigres	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Orsomarso - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Real Santander - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:1 ✺
05.03.26	Real Santander - Deportes Quindío	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Internacional de Palmira - Real Santander	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
29.05.25	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	0:2
Colombian Primera B
01.09.24	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	4:0
16.03.24	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	2:0
Colombian Copa
06.04.22	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	1:5
30.03.22	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	3:1
Colombian Primera B
31.07.21	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	3:3
06.10.18	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	2:2

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