Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui (Itagui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Leones		Real Santander

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.15
	2.11	3.33	3.43
	2.09	3.48	3.29	Watch
	2.05	3	3.25
	2.06	3.2	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.33)	3.25 ↑ (3.06)	3.29 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones
43.9%

Draw
28.2%

Real Santander
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

29.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

28.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Real Santander has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Santander than the current prediction. (+2%)

Leones - Real Santander Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Figueroa J. (G) 30. Granados R. 3. Marmolejo D. 8. Martinez J. 5. Meneses G. (C) 24. Montoya S. 13. Moreno D. 32. Pasos E. 16. Renteria J. 18. Restrepo N. 7. Rodriguez Cespedes C.	1. Mora J. (G) 21. Bustamante W. 13. Caicedo L. 11. Diaz M. 3. Duran C. 2. Perez J. 24. Rangel L. 26. Roman B. 7. Rueda Juan 25. Segura A. 31. Tapia D.
Substitutes
12. Arboleda J. (G) 35. Arboleda M. 27. Castano J. 38. Genes D. 17. Gonzalez A. 33. Lopez Posada I. 26. Posada S. 22. Restrepo J. 21. Segura O.	19. Ahumada S. 39. Almeida V. 27. Guillen Sanchez J. D. 16. Hernandez J. 12. Lazaro J. (G) 35. Montero Alarcon F. 30. Perez J. 20. Salas H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Moreno D. ⚽,
30', Perez J. 🟨,
34', Bustamante W. ↓, Salas H. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Perez J. ↓, Almeida V. ↑,
57', Rangel L. ↓, Guillen Sanchez J. D. ↑,
58', Montoya S. ↓, Segura O. ↑,
58', Rodriguez Cespedes C. ↓, Genes D. ↑,
63', Renteria J. 🟨,
65', Roman B. 🟨,
71', Moreno D. 🟨,
72', 🟨,
74', Meneses G. ↓, Lopez Posada I. ↑,
74', Granados R. ↓, Posada S. ↑,
74', Pasos E. ↓, Arboleda M. ↑,
76', Arboleda M. 🟨,
78', Diaz M. ↓, Montero Alarcon F. ↑,
78', Segura A. ↓, Ahumada S. ↑,
90+6', Guillen Sanchez J. D. 🟥,
90+6', Martinez J. 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones won 1.

Both teams have gone through a run of bad results.

Leones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leones won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.5:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Real Santander	11	2	6	3	13:18	-5	12
15	Leones	11	2	4	5	8:17	-9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
01.04.26	Patriotas - Leones	1:0 ✺
25.03.26	Barranquilla - Leones	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Leones - Internacional de Palmira	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Leones	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Leones - Envigado	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Real Santander
Colombian Primera B
07.04.26	Barranquilla - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Real Santander - Envigado	1:3 ✺
26.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Real Santander - Tigres	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Orsomarso - Real Santander	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
25.08.25	Leones - Real Santander	1:1
17.03.25	Real Santander - Leones	1:0
22.07.24	Leones - Real Santander	2:0
03.02.24	Real Santander - Leones	0:0
09.09.23	Real Santander - Leones	2:1
02.04.23	Leones - Real Santander	1:1
04.08.22	Leones - Real Santander	1:1

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