Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Martinez (Tocoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Real Sociedad Tocoa		Génesis PN

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.56	3.02	2.91	Watch
	2.43	3.04	2.71	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.8)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.74 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad Tocoa
36.5%

Draw
30.1%

Génesis PN
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

30.6%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.9%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad Tocoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Génesis PN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad Tocoa than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Argueta G. (G)
	12. Casildo L.
	27. Fernandez C.
	14. Fiallos J.
	5. Garcia J.
	32. Hurtado L.
	47. Marmol E.
	8. Melendez D.
	21. Moreira R.
	17. Oliva H.
	3. Santos L.
Substitutes
	25. Acosta B.
	9. Bodden A.
	4. Colon H.
	11. Diamond R.
	30. Flores E. (G)
	15. Gaboriell N.
	31. Gutierrez E.
	10. Martinez M.
	38. Morales Abarca M. D.
	56. Rodriguez R.
	19. Salinas M.
	20. Yanes F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Dominguez J. ⚽,
45+1', Marmol E. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
45+1', Oliva H. ↓, Yanes F. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Monico D. ↓, Dolmo Y. ↑,
59', Reyes D. ↓, Asprilla L. ↑,
60', Fernandez C. ↓, Gaboriell N. ↑,
67', Santos L. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
68', Martinez R. ↓, Carrasco M. ↑,
71', Casildo L. 🟨,
75', Dolmo Y. 🟨,
75', Jones A. ↓, Enamorado N. ↑,
75', Ramirez W. ↓, Martinez A. N. ↑,
79', Casildo L. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
80', Gaboriell N. 🟨,
82', Yanes F. 🟨,
88', Martinez M. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 0.

Real Sociedad Tocoa is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Génesis is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real Sociedad Tocoa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:15 (average 1:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Sociedad Tocoa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.8:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad Tocoa
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.04.25	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
03.04.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - CD Marathón	0:2 ✺
29.03.25	Olancho - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:0 ✺
13.03.25	Real España - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
06.03.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 TLLTT
- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.04.25	Génesis PN - Olancho	3:3 ✺
02.04.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	4:1 ✺
30.03.25	Génesis PN - Victoria La Ceiba	3:3 ✺
12.03.25	Lobos UPNFM - Génesis PN	1:1 ✺
06.03.25	Génesis PN - Real España	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
12.02.25	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1
02.11.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	2:4
24.08.24	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1
08.04.24	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:0
11.02.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	1:2
02.12.23	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:2
29.11.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Génesis PN	0:0

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