Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 3 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Francisco Martinez (Tocoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Real Sociedad Tocoa		CD Marathón

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	1.93
	3.3	3.05	2.13
	3.69	3.07	2.13	Watch
	3.6	3	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.05	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.05)	3.07 ↓ (3.22)	2.07 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad Tocoa
26.3%

Draw
29.7%

CD Marathón
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28.3%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

27.4%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad Tocoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad Tocoa than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Real Sociedad Tocoa - CD Marathón Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Marathón will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marathón: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marathón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Marathón (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marathón (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Reyes F. (G) 20. Gotay P. 22. Gonzalez O. 25. Gomez A. 26. Bernardez R. 2. Martinez D. 10. Dolmo Y. 15. Dominguez J. 17. Fuentes A. 7. Reyes D. 11. Martinez R.	25. Ortiz L. (G) 2. Figueroa H. 4. Rivera J. 27. Anderson I. 10. Ramirez D. 17. Vega Orellana A. N. 20. Gutierrez Y. 29. Aguila R. 65. Bueso J. 13. Tejeda A. 70. Lopez I.
Substitutes
28. Asprilla L. 14. Carrasco M. 23. Delgado E. 4. Enamorado N. 13. Felix B. 6. Martinez A. N. 9. Martinez G. 5. Moreno B. 3. Ramirez W. 1. Roa A. (G) 33. Suazo E. 30. Turner B.	19. Aguilera J. 11. Anangono J. 7. Castillo I. 5. Martinez Hernandez F. E. 41. Sevilla C. 49. Torres E. (G) 15. Vargas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Tejeda A. ⚽,
45+2', Gomez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dolmo Y. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
46', Gotay P. ↓, Enamorado N. ↑,
52', 🟨,
56', Martinez D. 🟨,
56', Fuentes A. ↓, Felix B. ↑,
63', Anderson I. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Ramirez D. ⚽,
66', Reyes D. ↓, Turner B. ↑,
71', Gutierrez Y. ↓, Aguilera J. ↑,
71', Aguila R. ↓, Castillo I. ↑,
74', Lopez I. ↓, Sevilla C. ↑,
74', Tejeda A. ↓, Anangono J. ↑,
78', Dominguez J. ↓, Delgado E. ↑,
81', Vega Orellana A. N. ↓, Martinez Hernandez F. E. ↑,
82', Enamorado N. 🟨,
89', Castillo I. 🟨,
90+3', Enamorado N. 🟨,
90+4', Martinez D. 🟨,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 0.

Real Sociedad Tocoa is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Marathón is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Marathón will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 11:28 (average 0.7:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:9 (average 0.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad Tocoa
Honduras Liga Nacional
29.03.25	Olancho - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:0 ✺
13.03.25	Real España - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
06.03.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Juticalpa	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LTTTL
- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
29.03.25	CD Marathón - Motagua	1:1 ✺
13.03.25	Victoria La Ceiba - CD Marathón	1:4 ✺
06.03.25	CD Marathón - Juticalpa	4:0 ✺
01.03.25	CD Marathón - Lobos UPNFM	3:3 ✺
23.02.25	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - CD Marathón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
02.02.25	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1
10.11.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - CD Marathón	0:0
14.09.24	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1
13.04.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - CD Marathón	1:2
17.02.24	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:1
29.10.23	CD Marathón - Real Sociedad Tocoa	2:1
03.09.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - CD Marathón	2:0

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