Match Info

HONDURAS: Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Francisco Martinez (Tocoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV
North-central-america	Centro America TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Sociedad Tocoa		Motagua

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.95	2.37
	2.6	3.25	2.45
	2.66	3.15	2.54
	2.74	3.17	2.6	Watch
	2.61	3.02	2.53
	2.6	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (7.19)	3.13 ↓ (3.5)	2.49 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Honduras Liga Nacional with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Centro America TV

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Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad Tocoa
34.3%

Draw
29.1%

Motagua
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.8%

26.3%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.3%

25.3%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad Tocoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Sociedad Tocoa's performance.

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-24.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Motagua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad Tocoa than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Sociedad Tocoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+26.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Motagua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Real Sociedad Tocoa will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Motagua will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roa A. (G) 16. Jones A. 22. Visser B. 34. Ramos J. 2. Martinez D. 6. Martinez A. N. 15. Dominguez J. 32. Monico D. 7. Reyes D. 9. Martinez G. 28. Asprilla L.	19. Rougier J. (G) 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 12. Santos M. 17. Portillo J. 34. Sacaza G. 35. Melendez C. 5. Discua O. 7. Serrano J. 8. Martinez Betanco W. J. 42. Argueta J. 11. Ledesma D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Argueta J. ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
59', Martinez Betanco W. J. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
59', Discua O. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
63', Reyes D. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
63', Martinez A. N. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
69', Ledesma D. ↓, Vazquez M. ↑,
69', Serrano J. ↓, Mejia Y. ↑,
70', Melendez C. 🟨,
71', Dominguez J. ↓, Delgado E. ↑,
80', Asprilla L. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
89', Jones A. 🟨,
90+4', Cardozo Coitinho S. 🟥,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 0.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Motagua could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Motagua is a favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 20:44 (average 1.2:2.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Sociedad Tocoa won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:18 (average 1.8:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad Tocoa
Honduras Liga Nacional
02.03.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Juticalpa	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Victoria La Ceiba - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:0 ✺
16.02.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Lobos UPNFM	1:1 ✺
12.02.25	Génesis PN - Real Sociedad Tocoa	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTTL
- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
01.03.25	Motagua - Victoria La Ceiba	2:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
26.02.25	Cincinnati - Motagua	1:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
22.02.25	Real España - Motagua	2:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
19.02.25	Motagua - Cincinnati	1:4 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
15.02.25	Motagua - Olimpia Tegucigalpa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
19.01.25	Motagua - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:0
19.10.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	1:4
10.08.24	Motagua - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:1
25.04.24	Motagua - Real Sociedad Tocoa	3:0
28.02.24	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	1:3
12.11.23	Real Sociedad Tocoa - Motagua	3:2
16.09.23	Motagua - Real Sociedad Tocoa	0:0

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