Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Nicola Tubaldi (Recanati)


	Recanatese		Sammaurese

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	3.8
	1.75	3.68	4.01	Watch
	1.82	3.4	3.88
	1.84	3.4	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.17)	3.47 ↑ (3.38)	3.87 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Recanatese
50.4%

Draw
26.2%

Sammaurese
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

26.9%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

25.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Recanatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Recanatese's performance.

Sammaurese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sammaurese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Recanatese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sammaurese than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sammaurese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Recanatese - Sammaurese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, ⚽,
26', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
75', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+7', 🟥,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Recanatese is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Recanatese won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Recanatese won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Recanatese	6	1	3	2	8:9	-1	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Recanatese 1923
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.01.26	Notaresco - Recanatese	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fossombrone - Recanatese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Recanatese - Teramo	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Sora - Recanatese	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Recanatese - Maceratese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWT
- AC Sammaurese
Italian Serie D - Group F
04.01.26	Sammaurese - Castelfidardo	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Sammaurese - San Marino Calcio	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Atletico Ascoli - Sammaurese	3:2 ✺
07.12.25	Sammaurese - Ancona	0:3 ✺
30.11.25	L Aquila - Sammaurese	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
14.09.25	Sammaurese - Recanatese	1:4
24.03.19	Sammaurese - Recanatese	0:3
18.11.18	Recanatese - Sammaurese	2:2
11.09.16	Recanatese - Sammaurese	1:0

Recanatese - Sammaurese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide