Match Info
Serie D - Group F - Round 18Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Sammaurese |
|
Castelfidardo |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.82 |
3.1 |
2.28 |
|
 |
2.93 |
3.26 |
2.25 |
 Watch |
 |
2.88 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
|
 |
3.01 |
3.1 |
2.24 |
|
 |
3 |
3.2 |
2.2 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.93 ↑
(2.59) |
3.11 ↓
(3.28) |
2.25 ↓
(2.39) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Sammaurese
30.9% | Draw
29% | Castelfidardo
40.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sammaurese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Castelfidardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sammaurese than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sammaurese, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)Sammaurese - Castelfidardo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 38', 1 - 0, Bertani R. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 65', 1 - 1, Abagnale G. ⚽,
- 66', 2 - 1, Valentini F. ⚽,
- 69', 3 - 1, Dimitri M. ⚽,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).Sammaurese is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).Castelfidardo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1). In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sammaurese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.Including home match between the teams, Sammaurese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
Last Results with these Odds
Sammaurese - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.79%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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