Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 12 December 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Red Bull Salzburg		Benfica

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.8	2
	3.5	3.8	1.95
	3.55	4	1.98	Watch
	3.6	3.95	2
	3.6	3.94	2.01
	3.3	3.8	1.95
	3.54	3.9	1.98
	3.5	3.9	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (2.75)	3.89 ↑ (3.7)	1.99 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Red Bull Salzburg
27.2%

Draw
24.6%

Benfica
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

25.7%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

27.2%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Red Bull Salzburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Red Bull Salzburg's form might have worsened.

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benfica's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Red Bull Salzburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benfica, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.8%	7.3%	70.9%

Red Bull Salzburg - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Salzburg will win (votes: 12 - 21.8%). Benfica will win (votes: 39 - 70.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 58.9% – 82.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Schlager A. (G) 70. Dedic A. (C) 4. Piatkowski K. 31. Pavlovic S. 6. Baidoo S. 10. Sucic L. 27. Gourna-Douath L. 18. Bidstrup M. 30. Gloukh O. 21. Ratkov P. 45. Nene D.	1. Trubin A. (G) 8. Aursnes F. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 5. Morato 87. Neves J. 10. Kokcu O. 11. Di Maria A. 27. Rafa Silva 20. Joao Mario 19. Tengstedt C.
Substitutes
15. Diambou M. 11. Fernando 32. Forson A. 8. Kameri D. 20. Koita S. 19. Konate K. 41. Krumrey J. (G) 1. Mantl N. (G) 39. Morgalla L. 5. Okoh B. 23. Simic R. 17. Ulmer A.	9. Cabral A. 22. Chiquinho 61. Florentino 47. Gouveia T. 17. Guedes G. 38. Joao Victor 13. Jurasek D. 45. Kokubo L. (G) 33. Musa P. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Struber G.	Schmidt R.

Preview

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Salzburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Benfica have a series of home games.

Benfica will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Salzburg: Capaldo N. (Knee Injury) Kjaergaard M. (Shoulder Injury) Solet O. (Thigh Injury) Terzic A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Antonio Silva (Red Card) Bah A. (Foot Injury) Bernat J. (Muscle Injury) David Neres (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Salzburg: Ulmer A. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Salzburg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
09.12.23	Rapid Wien - Red Bull Salzburg	0:1 ✺
03.12.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Wolfsberger	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.11.23	Real Sociedad - Red Bull Salzburg	0:0 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
25.11.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Hartberg	3:2 ✺
12.11.23	Austria Wien - Red Bull Salzburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTWT
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
08.12.23	Benfica - Farense	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Moreirense - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.11.23	Benfica - Inter Milan	3:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Benfica - Famalicão	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.11.23	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
20.09.23	Benfica - Red Bull Salzburg	0:2

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