Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Benfica TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Benfica		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.05	2.5	Watch
	2.92	3.05	2.48	Watch
	3.01	3.16	2.6
	2.93	3.24	2.63	Watch
	2.88	3	2.5
	2.95	3.2	2.63	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.29)	3.11 ↓ (3.23)	2.55 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
32.5%

Draw
30.4%

Sporting Lisbon
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

28.7%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benfica's form might have worsened.

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting Lisbon's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benfica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting Lisbon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.6%	44.4%	25.9%

Benfica - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 8 - 30.8%). Sporting will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 27% – 65.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Sporting (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Sporting (5.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sporting (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 2 - 25%). Sporting (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 26. Diomande O. 25. Inacio G. 20. Araujo M. 5. Morita H. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 8. Goncalves P. 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
44. Araujo T. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G)	27. Alisson Santos 89. Ioannidis F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 2. Matheus Reis 72. Quaresma E. 7. Quenda G. 52. Simoes J. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Goncalves P. ⚽, Hjulmand M. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Sudakov G. ⚽, Dedic A. (A),
30', Morita H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Barreiro L. 🟨,
61', Goncalves P. ↓, Simoes J. ↑,
61', Morita H. ↓, Quenda G. ↑,
65', Suarez L. 🟨,
67', Pavlidis V. 🟨,
72', Fresneda I. 🟨,
75', Araujo M. 🟨,
76', Goncalves P. 🟨,
81', Sudakov G. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
86', Trincao ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
86', Pavlidis V. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
86', Suarez L. ↓, Ioannidis F. ↑,
88', Barrenechea E. ↓, Manu ↑,
90+2', Prestianni G. 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 2.

Benfica is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sporting is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Araujo H. (Muscle Injury) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Sporting: Braganca D. (Knee Injury) Debast Z. (Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 32:28. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 2.1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Ajax - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWTL
- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Club Brugge	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Marinhense	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Santa Clara - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Juventus - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Super Cup
31.07.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	0:1
Taça de Portugal
25.05.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:3 ET
Liga Portugal
10.05.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
11.01.25	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 penalties
Liga Portugal
29.12.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:0
06.04.24	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	2:1
Taça de Portugal
02.04.24	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	2:2

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