Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mino Favini (Meda) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Renate		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.4	4.45	6.7
	1.4	4.33	7.09
	1.4	4.46	6.74	Watch
	1.4	3.8	7
	1.39	4.1	7.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.36)	4.23 ↓ (4.66)	6.95 ↓ (7.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Renate
65.3%

Draw
21.6%

Pro Patria
13.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.7%

19.8%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

18.9%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Renate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Pro Patria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Renate than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Renate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Renate - Pro Patria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Nobile T. (G) 2. De Zen R. 15. Ori R. 24. Spedalieri J. 80. Vesentini F. 14. Cali M. 11. Delcarro A. 17. Bonetti A. 25. Vassallo F. (C) 9. Karlsson O. 92. Anelli N.	28. Sala A. (G) 39. Motolese M. 6. Sassaro A. 31. Felicioli G. 20. Mora C. 25. Ferri D. 23. Frosali J. (C) 17. Tunjov G. 7. Orfei A. 10. Mastroianni F. 14. Citterio G.
Substitutes
12. Bartoccioni A. (G) 77. De Leo L. 16. Ekuban J. 8. Esposito G. 97. Fall M. 3. Gardoni P. 72. Mastromonaco G. 7. Muhameti E. 21. Riviera C. 6. Rossi G. 71. Ruiz Giraldo P. 19. Ziu D.	70. Desogus J. 5. Di Munno A. 27. Giudici L. 26. Masi A. 4. Reggiori P. 11. Renelus B. 21. Ricordi T. 8. Schiavone A. 40. Schiro T. 19. Travaglini C. 9. Udoh K. 22. Zamarian M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', Cali M. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Tunjov G. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Vesentini F. ⚽,
42', Frosali J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bonetti A. ↓, Ruiz Giraldo P. ↑,
51', Tunjov G. 🟨,
60', Tunjov G. ↓, Desogus J. ↑,
67', Vassallo F. ↓, Ekuban J. ↑,
74', Orfei A. ↓, Di Munno A. ↑,
74', Mastroianni F. ↓, Udoh K. ↑,
80', (Penalty Awarded),
82', Mora C. ↓, Reggiori P. ↑,
82', Frosali J. ↓, Ricordi T. ↑,
84', Vesentini F. ↓, Nene S. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Delcarro A. ⚽,
88', Delcarro A. 🟨,
90', Karlsson O. ↓, Esposito G. ↑,
90', Anelli N. ↓, Mastromonaco G. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Pro Patria is Serie C ~ Play Out

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Renate won 4.

In recent matches, Renate has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pro Patria has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Renate is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Renate won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:15. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Renate won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.7:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	9:16	-7	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Renate
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Trento - Renate	3:3 ✺
13.04.26	Renate - Pro Vercelli	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Renate	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Renate - Novara	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Renate - Vicenza Virtus	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWTWL
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Pro Patria - Union ArzignanoChiampo	2:3 ✺
13.04.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Pro Patria	2:4 ✺
06.04.26	Pro Patria - Triestina	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Pergolettese - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Pro Patria - Lecco	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
20.12.25	Pro Patria - Renate	0:3
21.12.24	Renate - Pro Patria	1:0
25.08.24	Pro Patria - Renate	0:1
25.02.24	Pro Patria - Renate	1:3
21.10.23	Renate - Pro Patria	1:2
Club Friendly
13.08.23	Pro Patria - Renate	3:2
Italian Serie C Group A
29.01.23	Renate - Pro Patria	0:1

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