Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 33

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Carlo Speroni (Busto Arsizio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Pro Patria		Lecco

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.3	3	2
	3.5	3.1	2.05	Watch
	3.63	3.1	2.1
	3.48	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.4	2.88	2.05
	3.58	2.99	2.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 (3.48)	3.05 ↓ (3.26)	2.05 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Patria
26%

Draw
29.8%

Lecco
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

28.2%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

27.4%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Lecco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecco than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Pro Patria - Lecco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Sala A. (G) 20. Mora C. 33. Pogliano C. 39. Motolese M. 19. Travaglini C. 17. Tunjov G. 5. Di Munno A. 23. Frosali J. 7. Orfei A. 9. Udoh K. 70. Desogus J.	1. Furlan J. (G) 13. Battistini M. 4. Marrone L. 41. Romani L. 11. Urso O. 5. Zanellato N. 21. Metlika A. 80. Kritta M. 97. Duca E. 51. Konate I. 25. Sipos L.
Substitutes
14. Citterio G. 25. Ferri D. 27. Giudici L. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 10. Mastroianni F. 11. Renelus B. 21. Ricordi T. 1. Rovida W. (G) 6. Sassaro A. 8. Schiavone A. 40. Schiro T.	78. Anastasini J. 14. Bonaiti S. 90. Constant G. (G) 22. Dalmasso J. (G) 16. Ferrini M. 10. Furrer G. 6. Mallamo A. 19. Ndongue F. 99. Parker S. 17. Pellegrino G. 45. Rizzo M. 8. Voltan D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
17', 0 - 1, Sipos L. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Duca E. ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Urso O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sipos L. ↓, Parker S. ↑,
46', Duca E. ↓, Pellegrino G. ↑,
46', Orfei A. ↓, Renelus B. ↑,
46', Frosali J. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
60', Udoh K. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
60', Mora C. ↓, Giudici L. ↑,
61', Metlika A. ↓, Mallamo A. ↑,
61', Konate I. ↓, Furrer G. ↑,
69', 0 - 4, Mallamo A. ⚽,
74', Kritta M. ↓, Rizzo M. ↑,
75', Desogus J. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
76', Battistini M. 🟨,
88', Tunjov G. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 4, Mastroianni F. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 2.

Pro Patria is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lecco's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lecco could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Pro Patria won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 1.7:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Lecco	8	2	3	3	6:8	-2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
15.03.26	Lumezzane - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Pro Patria - Alcione	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Ospitaletto - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pro Patria - Virtus Verona	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Brescia - Pro Patria	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTTL
- Calcio Lecco 1912
Italian Serie C Group A
15.03.26	Lecco - Novara	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Lecco	0:1 ✺
03.03.26	Lecco - Renate	0:3 ✺
28.02.26	Brescia - Lecco	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lecco - AlbinoLeffe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
16.11.25	Lecco - Pro Patria	1:0
22.02.25	Lecco - Pro Patria	2:1
12.10.24	Pro Patria - Lecco	2:1
08.04.23	Lecco - Pro Patria	2:1
04.12.22	Pro Patria - Lecco	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
01.05.22	Lecco - Pro Patria	0:2
Italian Serie C Group A
05.02.22	Pro Patria - Lecco	1:1

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