Match Info

J1 League - Round 13

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		Kashiwa Reysol

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.4	2.95	3.1
	2.52	2.92	2.97	Watch
	2.52	3.08	3.25
	2.47	3.06	3.15	Watch
	2.45	2.88	3
	2.46	3.12	3.12	Watch
	2.55	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.81)	3.01 ↑ (2.97)	3.1 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
38.2%

Draw
31.4%

Kashiwa Reysol
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

31.6%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

32.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Nagoya (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 2. Nogami Y. 20. Mikuni K. 6. Kawazura A. 27. Nakayama K. 15. Inagaki S. 8. Shiihashi K. 7. Izumi R. 10. Mateus 14. Morishima T. 18. Nagai K.	25. Kojima R. (G) 4. Koga T. 13. Inukai T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 37. Nakajima S. 33. Shirai E. 3. Diego 6. Yamada Y. 11. Watai M. 9. Hosoya M. 15. Kinoshita K.
Substitutes
9. Asano Y. 70. Hara T. 33. Kikuchi T. 35. Pisano A. (G) 3. Sato Y. 30. Sugiura S. 55. Tokumoto S. 17. Uchida T. 11. Yamagishi Y.	18. Kakita Y. 8. Koizumi Y. 14. Koyamatsu T. 24. Kubo T. 27. Kumasaka K. 19. Nakama H. 1. Saruta H. (G) 5. Tanaka H. 28. Toshima S.
Coaches
Hasegawa K.	Rodriguez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Inagaki S. ⚽, Morishima T. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Yamada Y. ⚽, Hosoya M. (A),
45', Diego 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Shirai E. ↓, Kumasaka K. ↑,
46', Nakajima S. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Hosoya M. ⚽, Diego (A),
58', Diego ↓, Koyamatsu T. ↑,
59', Kinoshita K. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
62', Shiihashi K. ↓, Yamagishi Y. ↑,
62', Izumi R. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
62', Morishima T. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
74', Nakayama K. ↓, Tokumoto S. ↑,
77', Hosoya M. ↓, Koizumi Y. ↑,
84', Nogami Y. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
87', Mitsumaru H. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 3.

Nagoya is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Kashiwa is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nagoya could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nagoya have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Nagoya: Yamagishi Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Kashiwa: Sugioka D. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Junker K. (Inactive)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Nagoya won 10 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24:18 (average 1.2:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Nagoya won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:9 (average 1.2:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.49%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.9%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
25.04.25	Kashima Antlers - Nagoya Grampus	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLLL
- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
26.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
16.04.25	Fukushima United - Kashiwa Reysol	2:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.04.25	Tokyo - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Gamba Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.07.24	Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1
Japan J League Cup
09.06.24	Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
05.06.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
Japan J1 League
16.03.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	0:2
03.12.23	Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
Japan Emperors Cup
30.08.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	2:0
Japan J1 League
12.03.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	0:3

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