Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Referee: Bensalah N. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Rhode Island		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.15
	1.61	4.15	6
	1.58	4.22	5.04	Watch
	1.57	3.7	4.8
	1.57	3.98	5.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.8)	4 ↑ (3.54)	5.3 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
59.1%

Draw
23.3%

Birmingham Legion
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

26%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

25.3%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rhode Island's performance.

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham Legion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rhode Island that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 15. Nodarse F. 24. Yao K. 32. Diop H. 3. Sanchez A. 12. Holstad C. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 17. Kwizera J. 10. Rodriguez A. 8. Leo Afonso 9. Williams J.	1. Koleilat J. (G) 26. Daley A. 3. Kavita P. (C) 4. Hamouda R. 11. McCartney D. 6. McIllhatton S. 18. Antwi S. 21. Tregarthen S. 16. Vassell P. 19. Diarbian G. 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
7. Atkinson D. 29. Castro J. (G) 14. Dorsey L. 21. Herivaux Z. 22. Scardina N. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 5. Stoneman G.	8. Cole K. 12. McMullen T. (G) 81. Ngoma S. 15. Pasher T. 7. Saucedo S. 27. Washington B. 17. Williams R.
Coaches
Smith K.	Heaps J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Tregarthen S. ⚽, McCartney D. (A),
17', 1 - 1, Leo Afonso ⚽, Holstad C. (A),
45+2', Yao K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Bacharach Capdevila H. 🟨,
49', 1 - 2, Kavita P. ⚽,
57', 1 - 3, Damus R. ⚽,
67', Bacharach Capdevila H. ↓, Herivaux Z. ↑,
67', Yao K. ↓, Scardina N. ↑,
67', Rodriguez A. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
74', Diarbian G. ↓, Ngoma S. ↑,
77', Sanchez A. ↓, Dorsey L. ↑,
79', Antwi S. 🟨,
80', Kwizera J. 🟨,
81', 🟨,
85', Holstad C. ↓, Shapiro-Thompson A. ↑,
85', Damus R. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
90+1', Vassell P. ↓, Cole K. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 9 and 11)

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Rhode Island is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Rhode Island won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham Legion - the odds 4.06 are the expected chance of winning is 22.72%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Cup
25.04.26	Hartford Athletic - Rhode Island	0:0 ✺
USL Championship
22.04.26	Rhode Island - Charleston Battery	4:0 ✺
US Open Cup
14.04.26	New England Revolution - Rhode Island	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
11.04.26	Lexington - Rhode Island	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Rhode Island - Detroit City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWLWT
- Birmingham Legion
USL Cup
25.04.26	San Antonio - Birmingham Legion	1:0 penalties ✺
USL Championship
19.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Loudoun United - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Charleston Battery - Birmingham Legion	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
20.08.25	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:0
USL Championship
05.07.25	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:1
14.05.25	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	0:1
31.08.24	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	2:0
17.07.24	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	1:3

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