Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Referee: Yaya A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	Rhode Island		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.60	6.75
	1.43	4.10	6.00
	1.39	5.14	7.45
	1.39	4.87	6.89	Watch
	1.37	5.00	7.10
	1.34	4.65	7.22	Watch
	1.37	4.60	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.42)	4.71 ↑ (4.51)	6.86 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
67%

Draw
19.6%

Monterey Bay
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

20.3%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

19.4%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Rhode Island - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 22. Scardina N. 5. Stoneman G. 15. Nodarse F. 3. Sanchez A. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 17. Kwizera J. 10. Rodriguez A. 14. Tsukada Y. 8. Leo Afonso	1. Delgado F. (C) 47. Elliot Q. 25. Egwu K. 32. Farnsworth Z. 3. Ritchie S. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 17. Glasgow O. 88. Lletget S. 20. Paul I. 21. Otoya D.
Substitutes
7. Atkinson D. 29. Castro J. (G) 18. Foyo O. 11. Fuson N. 16. Klein E. 2. Rovira D. 9. Williams J.	15. Barajas F. 23. Blancas E. 31. Dalton C. (G) 22. Garcia J. 16. Jacob Montes 11. Leggett W. 7. Rebollar A.
Coaches
Smith K.	Covelo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Leo Afonso ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Lletget S. ⚽, Paul I. (A),
22', Farnsworth Z. 🟨,
25', Sanchez A. 🟨,
42', Otoya D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Otoya D. ↓, Leggett W. ↑,
59', Elliot Q. 🟨,
66', 2 - 1, Bacharach Capdevila H. ⚽, Tsukada Y. (A),
70', Glasgow O. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
72', Tsukada Y. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
72', Rodriguez A. ↓, Fuson N. ↑,
76', Shapiro-Thompson A. 🟨,
77', Barajas F. 🟨,
80', Shapiro-Thompson A. ↓, Klein E. ↑,
80', Leo Afonso ↓, Foyo O. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Stoneman G. ⚽,
84', Lletget S. ↓, Jacob Montes ↑,
89', Scardina N. ↓, Rovira D. ↑,
90', Klein E. 🟨,
90+2', Leggett W. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

In recent matches, Rhode Island has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monterey Bay has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Rhode Island is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Rhode Island won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
15.08.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Rhode Island	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Rhode Island - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Rhode Island	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Rhode Island - Hartford Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLWW
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
15.08.26	Oakland Roots - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Monterey Bay - New Mexico United	2:5 ✺
05.08.26	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
10.05.25	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	1:1
24.03.24	Monterey Bay - Rhode Island	2:2

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