Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Referee: Matto J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Rhode Island		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.25	2.85
	2.3	3.35	2.72
	2.27	3.55	3.1
	2.14	3.54	3.13	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3
	2.3	3.34	2.74	Watch
	2.3	3.35	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.38)	3.41 ↑ (3.36)	2.89 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
41.2%

Draw
27%

Louisville City
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

27.6%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

28.5%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Rhode Island - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 22. Scardina N. 5. Stoneman G. 15. Nodarse F. 24. Yao K. 37. Korzeniowski S. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 17. Kwizera J. 8. Leo Afonso 14. Tsukada Y.	12. Faundez D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Dayes B. 32. Adams K. (C) 23. Gleadle S. 31. Lambert K. 27. Davila E. 2. McFadden A. 21. Huerman Q. 14. Showunmi T. 25. Wilson J.
Substitutes
7. Atkinson D. 29. Castro J. (G) 18. Foyo O. 16. Klein E. 10. Rodriguez A. 2. Rovira D. 3. Sanchez A.	47. Akale M. 99. Conley C. 8. Davila T. 13. Dia A. 9. Donovan C. 3. Morris J. 15. Perez E. 29. Schewe R. (G) 7. Serrano R.
Coaches
Smith K.	Bird S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Totsch S. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Yao K. ↓, Foyo O. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Korzeniowski S. ⚽, Kwizera J. (A),
50', McFadden A. 🟨,
51', Huerman Q. 🟨,
56', Gleadle S. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
56', Lambert K. ↓, Davila T. ↑,
56', Dayes B. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
63', Totsch S. 🟨,
66', Smith K. 🟨,
69', Tsukada Y. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
69', Shapiro-Thompson A. ↓, Klein E. ↑,
69', Faundez D. ↓, Schewe R. ↑,
81', Leo Afonso ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
81', Showunmi T. ↓, Donovan C. ↑,
89', Stoneman G. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
90+5', Davila E. 🟨,
90+5', Kwizera J. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Rhode Island is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Rhode Island won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Rhode Island won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
29.08.26	Tulsa - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Rhode Island	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Rhode Island - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
29.08.26	Louisville City - Detroit City	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Indy Eleven - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Orange County SC - Louisville City	2:3 ✺
USL Cup
12.08.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
08.08.26	Louisville City - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
21.03.26	Louisville City - Rhode Island	4:2
06.09.25	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:1
11.06.25	Louisville City - Rhode Island	2:1
09.11.24	Louisville City - Rhode Island	0:3
22.06.24	Louisville City - Rhode Island	2:5
25.05.24	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:0

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