Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Southwest University Park (El Paso, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	El Paso Locomotive		Monterey Bay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.62	3.90	4.00
	1.73	3.55	3.90
	1.68	4.30	4.53
	1.72	4.24	3.97	Watch
	1.64	4.25	4.45
	1.69	4.21	4.21	Watch
	1.66	3.95	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.75)	4.06 ↑ (3.45)	4.17 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Paso Locomotive
55.1%

Draw
22.8%

Monterey Bay
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.9%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

21.8%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Paso Locomotive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with El Paso Locomotive that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+5%)

El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Romero A. (G) 21. Twumasi K. 25. Ortiz A. 93. Tony Alfaro 11. Farkarlun B. 30. Coronado R. 6. Calvillo E. (C) 16. Gabriel Torres 19. Mendez A. 14. Rubin R. 10. Moreno A.	98. Jackson J. (G) 22. Garcia J. 5. Gordon N. (C) 32. Farnsworth Z. 17. Glasgow O. 16. Jacob Montes 14. Nakamura R. 21. Otoya D. 88. Lletget S. 11. Leggett W. 20. Paul I.
Substitutes
13. Avila R. 23. Diaz G. 15. Dollenmayer N. 29. Hoban K. 7. Jones Z. 4. Pedro Cruz (G) 12. Ruiz R. 8. Sainte C.	18. Belmar J. 23. Blancas E. 31. Dalton C. (G) 25. Egwu K. 47. Elliot Q. 7. Rebollar A. 3. Ritchie S.
Coaches
Gonzalez J.	Covelo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Gordon N. 🟨,
20', Farnsworth Z. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Mendez A. ⚽, Calvillo E. (A),
45+1', Ortiz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gordon N. ↓, Egwu K. ↑,
46', Jackson J. ↓, Dalton C. ↑,
60', Covelo A. 🟨,
66', Calvillo E. ↓, Dollenmayer N. ↑,
66', Moreno A. ↓, Avila R. ↑,
66', Farkarlun B. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
73', Jacob Montes ↓, Belmar J. ↑,
73', Garcia J. ↓, Elliot Q. ↑,
77', Mendez A. ↓, Jones Z. ↑,
77', Twumasi K. ↓, Sainte C. ↑,
84', Leggett W. ↓, Ritchie S. ↑,
84', Dollenmayer N. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Paso won 2.

Recent performances by El Paso have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Monterey Bay is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, El Paso is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, El Paso won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, El Paso won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
01.08.26	Orange County SC - El Paso Locomotive	2:0 ✺
25.07.26	El Paso Locomotive - Sporting Jacksonville	2:0 ✺
18.07.26	Tulsa - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	El Paso Locomotive - New Mexico United	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Las Vegas Lights - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW
- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Monterey Bay - Orange County SC	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Monterey Bay - Las Vegas Lights	2:3 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	San Antonio - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
20.06.26	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	1:0
14.03.26	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	0:3
16.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	2:2
21.06.25	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	1:2
24.08.24	Monterey Bay - El Paso Locomotive	0:0
13.03.24	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	1:1
02.09.23	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	1:2

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