Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday

Location: City Stadium (Richmond, VA)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Richmond Kickers		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.12	3.51	2.09
				Watch
	3.11	3.42	2.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (3.06)	3.47 ↑ (3.42)	2.08 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Richmond Kickers
29.4%

Draw
26.4%

Lexington
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

26.6%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

26.2%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Richmond Kickers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Richmond Kickers than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Lexington aligns with the current prediction.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jara P. (G) 4. Fitch S. 38. Garnett G. 14. Guilherme Diniz 34. Howell B. 7. Johnson L. 20. Billhardt A. 18. Kanagwa J. 10. Seufert N. 3. Anderson H. 41. Richman A.	31. Thompson B. (G) 12. Zengue X. 15. Wu D. 27. Gilbert G. 80. Williams D. (C) 16. Caceres E. 23. Midence A. 14. Barbir D. 33. Ajago F. 11. Epps M. 71. Adedokun M.
Substitutes
2. Barnathan D. 16. Cela K. 39. Dobzyniak B. 43. Gomez J. 9. Kirkland J. 11. Pierre-Louis R. 40. Sarantakos N. 35. Sneddon J. (G) 32. Terzaghi E.	7. Borczak D. 99. Burke C. 3. Djeffal S. 22. Greene J. 6. Hafferty J. 83. Mbongue H. 24. Sargeant K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Ajago F. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Epps M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Epps M. ↓, Djeffal S. ↑,
46', Midence A. ↓, Greene J. ↑,
46', Adedokun M. ↓, Sargeant K. ↑,
46', Ajago F. ↓, Burke C. ↑,
46', Guilherme Diniz ↓, Sarantakos N. ↑,
46', Johnson L. ↓, Cela K. ↑,
58', Garnett G. 🟨,
62', Billhardt A. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
65', Barbir D. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
66', Garnett G. 🟨,
90', 0 - 3, Burke C. ⚽,

Preview

Richmond Kickers has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lexington has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lexington will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Richmond Kickers won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Richmond Kickers won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Richmond Kickers
USL League One
25.06.25	Union Omaha - Richmond Kickers	3:4 ✺
21.06.25	Richmond Kickers - Spokane Velocity	0:1 ✺
07.06.25	Richmond Kickers - Texoma	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
31.05.25	Richmond Kickers - North Carolina	0:1 ✺
USL League One
25.05.25	Westchester SC - Richmond Kickers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLLLT
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
20.06.25	Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Lexington - New Mexico United	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Monterey Bay - Lexington	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
31.05.25	Charlotte Independence - Lexington	3:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
24.05.25	Lexington - Tampa Bay Rowdies	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

USL League One
21.09.24	Richmond Kickers - Lexington	3:0
27.07.24	Lexington - Richmond Kickers	2:1
26.08.23	Lexington - Richmond Kickers	1:0
29.07.23	Lexington - Richmond Kickers	2:2
20.05.23	Richmond Kickers - Lexington	2:1

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