Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lexington		New Mexico United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.61	3.70	4.33
	1.55	4.05	4.95
	1.57	4.28	5.85
	1.64	4.04	4.75	Watch
	1.62	4	4.9
	1.66	4.11	4.46	Watch
	1.55	3.95	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.58)	4.02 ↓ (4.02)	4.88 ↑ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
57.9%

Draw
23.1%

New Mexico United
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

22.9%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

21.8%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for New Mexico United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Lexington - New Mexico United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lexington will win (votes: 2 - 40%). New Mexico will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 4. Ordonez A. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 27. Rodrigues B. P. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.	13. Shakes K. (G) 27. Howell M. 24. Blackett T. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 19. Bailey Z. 11. Nava C. 10. Hurst G. 21. Noel V. 31. Melto Quiah J.
Substitutes
10. Adedokun M. 14. Caborn A. 22. Hafferty J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 21. Muir M. 19. Scott T. 31. Thompson B. (G) 20. Yosef M.	29. Archimede L. 56. Arozarena R. (G) 5. Harris D. 4. Keller K. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 28. Wilkerson C. 6. Zelalem G.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Sanchez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
28', Blackett T. 🟨,
40', Ordonez A. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Hurst G. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', 0 - 2, Noel V. ⚽, Jabang O. (A),
45+5', Greene J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', Nick Firmino ↓, Scott T. ↑,
62', 0 - 3, Hurst G. ⚽, Melto Quiah J. (A),
64', Ferri B. 🟨,
65', Ordonez A. ↓, Hafferty J. ↑,
65', Ferri B. ↓, Adedokun M. ↑,
68', 0 - 4, Melto Quiah J. ⚽, Noel V. (A),
69', Noel V. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
69', Nava C. ↓, Wilkerson C. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Goodrum P. ⚽,
83', Rodrigues B. P. ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
85', Brown J. 🟨,
86', Hurst G. ↓, Zelalem G. ↑,
86', Jabang O. ↓, Harris D. ↑,
90', Zelalem G. 🟨,
90+1', Hemmi M. 🟨,
90+2', Bailey Z. ↓, Reid-Stephen N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In recent matches, Lexington has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

New Mexico is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lexington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lexington is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lexington won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Cup
11.07.26	Louisville City - Lexington	4:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Lexington	1:4 ✺
USL Cup
20.06.26	Lexington - Indy Eleven	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
13.06.26	Lexington - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Detroit City - Lexington	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWLWW
- New Mexico United
USL Cup
11.07.26	El Paso Locomotive - New Mexico United	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
04.07.26	New Mexico United - Oakland Roots	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	New Mexico United - Atlante	3:3 ✺
USL Championship
20.06.26	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
13.06.26	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
28.09.25	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1
14.06.25	Lexington - New Mexico United	2:1

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