Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

Referee: Hassan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Monterey Bay		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.20	3.40	1.95
	3.3	3.5	1.95
	3.41	3.79	2.05
	3.32	3.7	2.01	Watch
	3.3	3.65	2
	3.26	3.44	1.97	Watch
	3.3	3.55	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	3.58 ↑ (3.56)	1.98 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
27.9%

Draw
25.7%

Lexington
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

26.1%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

25.9%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Monterey Bay - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Jackson J. (G) 22. Garcia J. 25. Egwu K. 32. Farnsworth Z. 47. Elliot Q. 14. Nakamura R. 93. Judson 4. Ross N. 10. Canete F. 88. Lletget S. (C) 20. Paul I.	17. Semmle O. (G) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 23. Brown J. 2. Greene J. 16. Ferri B. 6. Molloy A. (C) 34. Fry M. 8. Nick Firmino 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P.
Substitutes
15. Barajas F. 18. Belmar J. 31. Dalton C. (G) 11. Leggett W. 21. Otoya D. 26. Pakbaz J. 3. Ritchie S. 30. Villasana A.	21. Muir M. 27. Rodrigues B. P. 19. Scott T. 98. Seagrist P. 31. Thompson B. (G) 13. Tschantret M. 20. Yosef M.
Coaches
Covelo A.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Nick Firmino ⚽, Goodrum P. (A),
5', 1 - 1, Farnsworth Z. ⚽, Elliot Q. (A),
23', Farnsworth Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Canete F. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
54', Garcia J. 🟨,
55', Egwu K. 🟨,
63', Nick Firmino ↓, Rodrigues B. P. ↑,
64', Judson ↓, Leggett W. ↑,
70', Fry M. ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Goodrum P. ⚽, Molloy A. (A),
80', 1 - 3, Epps M. ⚽, Rodrigues B. P. (A),
83', Lletget S. ↓, Otoya D. ↑,
85', Ferri B. ↓, Tschantret M. ↑,
85', Epps M. ↓, Scott T. ↑,
85', 2 - 3, Otoya D. ⚽, Leggett W. (A),
86', Ross N. ↓, Villasana A. ↑,
90', Egwu K. 🟨,
90+2', Barajas F. 🟨,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Monterey Bay (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Lexington have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lexington may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lexington holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Monterey Bay has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:7 (averaging 1.3:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Monterey Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Last Results with these Odds

Monterey Bay - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.94%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
19.09.26	Charleston Battery - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Oakland Roots - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTLT
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
19.09.26	Lexington - Orange County SC	6:0 ✺
12.09.26	Oakland Roots - Lexington	1:4 ✺
05.09.26	Sporting Jacksonville - Lexington	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Lexington - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
26.08.26	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2
08.05.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:1
07.06.25	Monterey Bay - Lexington	2:1
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0

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