Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Corrigan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lexington		Tampa Bay Rowdies

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.35	3.45	2.75
	2.41	3.56	2.71
	2.33	3.53	2.83	Watch
	2.34	3.31	2.93	Watch
	2.35	3.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.78)	3.43 ↑ (3.31)	2.73 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
39.1%

Draw
27%

Tampa Bay Rowdies
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.9%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

27.7%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lexington's performance.

Tampa Bay Rowdies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lexington that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Rowdies than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Lexington - Tampa Bay Rowdies Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lexington (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ketterer L. (G) 22. Greene J. 6. Hafferty J. 5. Burks K. 24. Sargeant K. 3. Djeffal S. 23. Midence A. 8. Nick Firmino 11. Epps M. (C) 71. Adedokun M. 33. Ajago F.	41. Bandre E. (G) 2. Castellanos R. 3. Lasso F. 33. Guillen A. (C) 11. Bodily B. 10. Fernandes L. 17. Crisostomo D. 14. Vancaeyezeele T. 8. Bassett O. 28. Pacius W. 9. Arteaga M.
Substitutes
99. Burke C. 16. Caceres E. 27. Gilbert G. 37. Goldthorp E. 83. Mbongue H. 31. Thompson B. (G) 80. Williams D.	1. Campisi N. (G) 34. De Jesus M. 4. Hilton L. 20. Moon N. 21. Mustali E. 36. Rodriguez A. 26. Skinner J. 18. Worth N.
Coaches
Boss T.	Coleman S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Ajago F. ⚽, Epps M. (A),
35', Greene J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', 1 - 1, Arteaga M. ⚽, Fernandes L. (A),
69', Greene J. ↓, Burke C. ↑,
71', Burks K. 🟨,
72', Bodily B. ↓, Skinner J. ↑,
72', Pacius W. ↓, Moon N. ↑,
87', Fernandes L. ↓, Mustali E. ↑,
89', Midence A. ↓, Goldthorp E. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 12 and 12).

Lexington is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Tampa Bay is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
18.05.25	Lexington - Tulsa	0:2 ✺
10.05.25	Loudoun United - Lexington	5:1 ✺
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Lexington - Loudoun United	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT
- Tampa Bay Rowdies
USL Championship
17.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Rhode Island	0:3 ✺
10.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Charleston Battery	1:3 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Orlando City	0:5 ✺
USL Championship
03.05.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Miami	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLTT

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