Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Innviertel Arena (Ried)

Referee: Semler J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
World	Onefootball


	Ried		Swarovski Tirol

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4	Watch
	1.99	3.42	4.16
	1.98	3.38	3.96	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.8
	1.98	3.45	4.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 (1.96)	3.35 ↓ (3.4)	4 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ried
48.2%

Draw
28.2%

Swarovski Tirol
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

27.4%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

28.9%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ried has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Swarovski Tirol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ried than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swarovski Tirol than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Ried - Swarovski Tirol Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ried will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Swarovski Tirol will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ried: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ried (votes: 1 - 50%). Swarovski Tirol (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leitner A. (C) 5. Havenaar N. 23. Sollbauer M. 30. Steurer O. 12. Bajic A. 26. Mayer J. 6. Maart Y. 18. Rossdorfer F. 17. Pomer P. 29. van Wyk A. 7. Mutandwa K.	40. Stejskal A. (G) 23. Boras M. 5. Lawrence J. 27. Jaunegg D. 6. Sulzbacher L. 4. Muller V. (C) 17. Naschberger J. 20. Bockle B. 8. Baden Frederiksen N. 37. Wels M. 9. Ola-Adebomi A.
Substitutes
47. Aisowieren E. E. 28. Bajlicz N. 15. Boguo J. 13. Kiedl P. 19. Nasrawe J. 8. Rasner M. 3. Scherzer J. 24. Wernitznig C. 77. Wimmer F. (G)	11. Anselm T. 13. Eckmayr A. (G) 22. Falkner D. 28. Geris T. 16. Hinterseer L. 19. Huetz C. 10. Sabitzer T. 18. Schweighofer L. 21. Votter Y.
Coaches
Senft M.	Semlic P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+6', 1 - 0, Mutandwa K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', van Wyk A. ↓, Boguo J. ↑,
67', Naschberger J. ↓, Votter Y. ↑,
73', Sollbauer M. 🟨,
74', Maart Y. ↓, Rasner M. ↑,
79', Wels M. ↓, Hinterseer L. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Ola-Adebomi A. ⚽,
82', Mutandwa K. ↓, Kiedl P. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Pomer P. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Kiedl P. 🟨,
89', Boras M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ried won 1.

Ried is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Swarovski Tirol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ried might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Swarovski Tirol: Butler Q. (Knee Injury) Gugganig D. (Inactive) Kubatta D. (Yellow Cards) Taferner M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ried won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 36:26. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ried won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 22:12. (average 2.2:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ried	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11
9	Tirol	8	2	2	4	10:14	-4	8

Last Results with these Odds

Swarovski Tirol - the odds 3.71 are the expected chance of winning is 25.1%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Ried
Austrian Bundesliga
08.03.26	Ried - Austria Wien	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Grazer AK - Ried	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Ried - LASK Linz	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTTL
- WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austrian Bundesliga
08.03.26	Swarovski Tirol - Grazer AK	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Blau-Weiss Linz - Swarovski Tirol	2:3 ✺
22.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	LASK Linz - Swarovski Tirol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
22.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	1:1
04.10.25	Ried - Swarovski Tirol	2:0
Club Friendly
19.01.24	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	1:1
Austrian Bundesliga
12.05.23	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	1:1
14.04.23	Ried - Swarovski Tirol	1:1
12.11.22	Swarovski Tirol - Ried	2:0
21.08.22	Ried - Swarovski Tirol	1:2

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