Match Info

HNL - Round 4

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka)

Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAX Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Rijeka		Istra 1961

	1	X	2
	1.44	3.90	6.25
	1.47	4.40	6.00
	1.32	4.50	6.50
	1.47	4.57	6.86
	1.51	4.3	5.85	Watch
	1.43	4.10	7.15
	1.52	4.11	6.58	Watch
	1.45	4.15	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.39)	4.25 ↓ (4.67)	6.37 ↓ (6.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rijeka
63.7%

Draw
21.7%

Istra 1961
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.8%

19.8%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

19%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Istra 1961 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rijeka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Rijeka - Istra 1961 Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Rijeka will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Istra 1961 will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Todorovic A. (G) 22. Orec A. 45. Majstorovic A. (C) 51. Husic A. 23. Lasickas J. 8. Cubelic I. 26. Dantas T. 19. Vignato S. 10. Fruk T. 4. Jankovic N. 21. Puljic J.	1. Kolic F. (G) 97. Kadusic A. (C) 3. Nasraoui M. 4. Kumar R. 13. Sepic N. 88. Doumbia D. 8. Mauric A. 22. Frederiksen E. 80. Saranic I. 30. Skafar Zuzic N. 94. Jaganjac H.
Substitutes
18. Adu Adjei D. 5. Barco A. 91. Bodetic N. 34. Devetak M. 14. Gojak A. 77. Juric A. 7. Kabadayi Y. 1. Kovac V. (G) 6. Pavic B. 11. Rukavina G. 13. Vekic I. (G) 3. Zivkovic M.	20. Ahmeti D. 25. Albarracin G. 39. Brajkovic T. 27. Celija D. 11. Gorican S. 44. Hrvatin R. 9. Isaac 34. Kablar M. 16. Miettinen S. 40. Paus-Kunst J. (G) 7. Rozic V. 24. Taraba F.
Coaches
Kek M.	Cabello J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Nasraoui M. (Own goal),
43', Puljic J. (Penalty Awarded),
43', 2 - 0, Puljic J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 3 - 0, Fruk T. ⚽, Dantas T. (A),
60', Cubelic I. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
60', Vignato S. ↓, Pavic B. ↑,
61', Skafar Zuzic N. ↓, Rozic V. ↑,
61', Kadusic A. ↓, Hrvatin R. ↑,
61', Doumbia D. ↓, Albarracin G. ↑,
62', Jaganjac H. 🟨,
71', 3 - 1, Jaganjac H. ⚽,
72', Mauric A. ↓, Ahmeti D. ↑,
72', Husic A. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
72', Puljic J. ↓, Adu Adjei D. ↑,
78', Saranic I. ↓, Kablar M. ↑,
84', Jankovic N. ↓, Devetak M. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Frederiksen E. ⚽, Ahmeti D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Istra 1961 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rijeka is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Rijeka: Barisic T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rijeka won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:14. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Rijeka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:6. (average 1.7:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Rijeka	7	4	2	1	13:7	6	14
6	Istra 1961	9	3	3	3	17:14	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Rijeka
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.08.26	Midtjylland - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
16.08.26	Varaždin - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Ilves - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Rijeka - Rudeš	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTWW
- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
15.08.26	Istra 1961 - Slaven Belupo	3:0 ✺
09.08.26	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Istra 1961 - Lokomotiva Zagreb	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Lecce - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
21.07.26	Istra 1961 - Orijent	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
17.05.26	Istra 1961 - Rijeka	0:0
15.03.26	Rijeka - Istra 1961	0:2
20.01.26	Istra 1961 - Rijeka	1:2
27.09.25	Rijeka - Istra 1961	0:0
19.04.25	Istra 1961 - Rijeka	2:0
Croatian Cup
02.04.25	Rijeka - Istra 1961	1:0
Croatian HNL
09.02.25	Rijeka - Istra 1961	0:1

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