Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: MCH Arena (Herning)

Referee: Berke B. (Hun)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Midtjylland		Rijeka

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.9	5.5
	1.46	4.10	6.00
	1.52	3.85	5.9	Watch
	1.53	4.22	6.29
	1.52	4.21	6.36	Watch
	1.51	4	5.95
	1.57	4.04	6	Watch
	1.52	4.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.63)	4.05 ↑ (3.81)	6 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Midtjylland
61.4%

Draw
23%

Rijeka
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

23.7%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

25.4%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Midtjylland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Midtjylland's performance.

Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rijeka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.5%	17.1%	2.4%

Midtjylland - Rijeka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Midtjylland (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Midtjylland will win (33 of 41 users predict this - 80.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 92.62%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Olafsson E. (G) 5. Kristensen R. (C) 3. Jensen M. 22. Sorensen M. B. 11. Osorio D. 8. Billing P. 19. Bravo P. 21. Castillo D. 20. Byskov V. 10. Cho Gue-Sung 7. Franculino	99. Todorovic A. (G) 34. Devetak M. 5. Barco A. 45. Majstorovic A. (C) 22. Orec A. 8. Cubelic I. 6. Pavic B. 4. Jankovic N. 10. Fruk T. 18. Adu Adjei D. 26. Dantas T.
Substitutes
25. Bakker N. (G) 15. Beni D. 14. Chilufya E. 80. Dani Silva 38. Emefile J. 6. Erlic M. 90. Etim F. 13. Gabriel A. 18. Iheanacho S. 27. Johannesen S. 34. Ndiaye A. 29. Watjen K.	91. Bodetic N. 14. Gojak A. 51. Husic A. 77. Juric A. 7. Kabadayi Y. 1. Kovac V. (G) 23. Lasickas J. 21. Puljic J. 11. Rukavina G. 13. Vekic I. (G) 19. Vignato S. 3. Zivkovic M.
Coaches
Tullberg M.	Kek M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Cho Gue-Sung ⚽, Franculino (A),
36', Cubelic I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Byskov V. ↓, Johannesen S. ↑,
46', Franculino ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Johannesen S. ⚽, Iheanacho S. (A),
50', Fruk T. 🟨,
59', Castillo D. ↓, Watjen K. ↑,
60', Johannesen S. 🟨,
67', Dantas T. ↓, Puljic J. ↑,
74', Cho Gue-Sung ↓, Etim F. ↑,
74', Jankovic N. ↓, Kabadayi Y. ↑,
74', Cubelic I. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
87', Fruk T. ↓, Lasickas J. ↑,
87', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Juric A. ↑,
89', Barco A. 🟨,
89', Osorio D. ↓, Gabriel A. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Midtjylland is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Midtjylland: 3.63%

Last Results with these Odds

Midtjylland - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 55.34%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Midtjylland
Danish Superliga
16.08.26	Lyngby BK - Midtjylland	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Midtjylland - Bohemians Dublin	3:2 ✺
06.08.26	Bohemians Dublin - Midtjylland	0:2 ✺
Danish Superliga
02.08.26	Midtjylland - Horsens	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	Midtjylland - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TWWWL
- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
16.08.26	Varaždin - Rijeka	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Ilves - Rijeka	1:1 ✺
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Rijeka - Rudeš	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Derry City - Rijeka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWWW

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