Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion HNK Rijeka (Rijeka)

Referee: Barbara I. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Croatia	RTL
Finland	Ilves TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Rijeka		Ilves

	1	X	2
	1.27	4.50	10.00	Watch
	1.24	5.50	10.50
	1.20	6.00	13.00	Watch
	1.24	6.53	15.02
	1.24	5.83	11.99	Watch
	1.16	6.45	14.00
	1.30	5.15	10.90	Watch
	1.23	5.60	11.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.46)	5.7 ↑ (4.17)	12.05 ↑ (7.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Rijeka
75.8%

Draw
16.4%

Ilves
7.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.5%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

21.2%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rijeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rijeka's performance.

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rijeka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Rijeka - Ilves Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Rijeka (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rijeka will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rijeka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Todorovic A. (G) 22. Orec A. 45. Majstorovic A. (C) 5. Barco A. 34. Devetak M. 26. Dantas T. 6. Pavic B. 4. Jankovic N. 10. Fruk T. 18. Adu Adjei D. 14. Gojak A.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 19. Bamba G. 24. Kumpu V. 5. Vaisanen S. (C) 3. Rale M. 28. Kilo J. 14. Popovitch A. 15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 30. Kanga J. 9. Hytonen T. 13. Wallius K.
Substitutes
91. Bodetic N. 8. Cubelic I. 15. Grulovic G. 51. Husic A. 1. Kovac V. (G) 23. Lasickas J. 21. Puljic J. 11. Rukavina G. 37. Saho C. 13. Vekic I. (G) 19. Vignato S. 3. Zivkovic M.	36. Aho R. 17. Baranov S. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 16. Miettunen T. 22. Multala O. 10. Riski Ro. 33. Sacko Y. 25. Suvanne S. 45. Tamminen E. 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Kek M.	Speranza C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Pavic B. 🟨,
16', 1 - 0, Jankovic N. ⚽, Dantas T. (A),
27', Kilo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fruk T. ↓, Vignato S. ↑,
50', Barco A. 🟨,
59', Hytonen T. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
59', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Multala O. ↑,
71', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Puljic J. ↑,
71', Dantas T. ↓, Lasickas J. ↑,
72', Vaisanen S. ↓, Miettunen T. ↑,
72', Popovitch A. ↓, Sacko Y. ↑,
75', Kanga J. 🟨,
83', Kanga J. ↓, Tamminen E. ↑,
84', Devetak M. ↓, Rukavina G. ↑,
90', Gojak A. ↓, Cubelic I. ↑,
90+2', Bamba G. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Rijeka is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Ilves has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rijeka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Rijeka is the clear favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Rijeka
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Rijeka - Rudeš	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Derry City - Rijeka	0:1 ✺
23.07.26	Rijeka - Derry City	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Rijeka - Jadran Dekani	2:0 ✺
03.07.26	Radomlje - Rijeka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWWW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.26	Oulu - Ilves	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Ilves - Stjarnan	3:1 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.26	Ilves - Lahti	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Stjarnan - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.26	TPS - Ilves	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW

Upcoming Matches