Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 13 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere)

Referee: Nuza G. (Kos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2
Croatia	RTL
Finland	Ilves TV


	Ilves		Rijeka

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.85	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.8
	4.30	3.45	1.79	Watch
	4.42	3.51	1.80
	4.35	3.58	1.8	Watch
	4.15	3.40	1.79
	4.66	3.63	1.81	Watch
	4.10	3.40	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↓ (4.91)	3.45 ↓ (3.62)	1.81 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
21.8%

Draw
27%

Rijeka
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

25.4%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

25%

56.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Rijeka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rijeka than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rijeka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	10%	25%

Ilves - Rijeka Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Rijeka will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Rijeka (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Krkalic F. (G) 4. Pettersson O. 5. Vaisanen S. (C) 24. Kumpu V. 3. Rale M. 22. Multala O. 14. Popovitch A. 6. Raap Y. 30. Kanga J. 9. Hytonen T. 25. Suvanne S.	99. Todorovic A. (G) 34. Devetak M. 45. Majstorovic A. (C) 5. Barco A. 22. Orec A. 26. Dantas T. 21. Puljic J. 4. Jankovic N. 23. Lasickas J. 6. Pavic B. 18. Adu Adjei D.
Substitutes
15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 19. Bamba G. 17. Baranov S. 11. Coulibaly H. 28. Kilo J. 16. Miettunen T. 10. Riski Ro. 33. Sacko Y. 8. Stjopin M. 45. Tamminen E. 1. Virtanen O. (G) 13. Wallius K.	91. Bodetic N. 8. Cubelic I. 10. Fruk T. 14. Gojak A. 15. Grulovic G. 51. Husic A. 77. Juric A. 1. Kovac V. (G) 11. Rukavina G. 37. Saho C. 13. Vekic I. (G) 3. Zivkovic M.
Coaches
Speranza C.	Kek M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Suvanne S. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Baranov S. ⚽, Hytonen T. (A),
67', Raap Y. ↓, Sacko Y. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Lasickas J. ⚽, Majstorovic A. (A),
71', Lasickas J. ↓, Gojak A. ↑,
81', Popovitch A. ↓, Coulibaly H. ↑,
81', Kumpu V. ↓, Bamba G. ↑,
81', Hytonen T. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
84', Puljic J. ↓, Cubelic I. ↑,
87', Devetak M. 🟨,
90', Adu Adjei D. ↓, Juric A. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

Recent performances by Ilves have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rijeka is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Rijeka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Rijeka has had a series of home games.

In this match, Rijeka is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilves won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.26	Ilves - IFK Mariehamn	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
02.08.26	Oulu - Ilves	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Ilves - Stjarnan	3:1 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.26	Ilves - Lahti	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWW
- HNK Rijeka
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
02.08.26	Rijeka - Rudeš	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Derry City - Rijeka	0:1 ✺
23.07.26	Rijeka - Derry City	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.26	Rijeka - Jadran Dekani	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Rijeka - Ilves	1:0

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