Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 7 June 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Netherlands	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV2


	River Plate Montevideo		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	1.67	4	5	Watch
	1.68	3.8	4.75
	1.7	3.9	4.9
	1.7	4.03	4.96
	1.62	3.6	4.4
	1.67	3.98	4.85	Watch
	1.68	3.8	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.08)	3.87 ↑ (3.42)	4.77 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
56.1%

Draw
24.2%

Fluminense
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

27.2%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

26.2%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in River Plate Montevideo's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	4.9%	6.6%

River Plate Montevideo - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: River Plate Montevideo will win (54 of 61 users predict this - 88.52%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.52% – 96.52%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (C) 15. Herrera Mansilla Barrios M. A. 2. Rojas R. 14. Gonzalez L. 20. Casco M. 29. Aliendro R. 11. de la Cruz N. 36. Solari P. 10. Nacho Fernandez 21. Barco E. 18. Beltran L.	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 33. Nino (C) 30. Felipe Melo 23. Guga 7. Andre 8. Martinelli L. M. 21. Jhon Arias 10. Ganso 45. Lima 14. Cano G.
Substitutes
35. Alfonso F. 33. Centurion E. (G) 17. Diaz P. 43. Echeverri C. 30. Gomez E. 22. Kranevitter M. 4. Maidana J. 9. Miguel Borja 8. Palavecino A. 26. Paradela J. 31. Simon S. 7. Suarez M.	18. Alan 19. Alexandre Jesus 44. David Braz 32. de Lima I. R. 20. Gabriel Pirani 37. Giovanni 9. John Kennedy 99. Lele 26. Manoel 53. Mendes da Silva J. H. 22. Pedro Rangel (G) 29. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Demichelis M.	Diniz F.

Preview

Recent matches River Plate is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fluminense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fluminense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Fluminense have a series of guest games.

In this match River Plate is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches River Plate won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-9.

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.06.23	River Plate Montevideo - Boston River	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.05.23	Sporting Cristal - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.05.23	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0 ✺
07.05.23	Montevideo City Torque - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.05.23	Fluminense - River Plate Montevideo	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWTL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
04.06.23	Fluminense - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.06.23	Flamengo - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.23	Corinthians - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.05.23	The Strongest - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.05.23	Fluminense - River Plate Montevideo	5:1
25.05.21	River Plate Montevideo - Fluminense	1:3
22.04.21	Fluminense - River Plate Montevideo	1:1

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