Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 2 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Germany	Sport 1+
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Eleven Sports, Sport TV


	Fluminense		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.18	3.4	3.35
	2.12	3.49	3.62
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	2.21	3.52	3.76	Watch
	2.16	3.25	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.3)	3.35 ↑ (3.1)	3.43 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
44.2%

Draw
28.2%

River Plate Montevideo
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Fluminense - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 6 - 75%). River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Fluminense is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches River Plate is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

River Plate could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fluminense will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.23	Fortaleza - Fluminense	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.04.23	Paysandu - Fluminense	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.04.23	Fluminense - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.04.23	Fluminense - The Strongest	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	América Mineiro - Fluminense	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWWW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.04.23	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:4 ✺
22.04.23	La Luz - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.04.23	River Plate Montevideo - Sporting Cristal	4:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.04.23	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2 ✺
08.04.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
25.05.21	River Plate Montevideo - Fluminense	1:3
22.04.21	Fluminense - River Plate Montevideo	1:1

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