Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Referee: Sacarelo B. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	River Plate Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.5
	2.62	3.2	2.52
	2.67	3.34	2.63
	2.67	3.12	2.67	Watch
	2.78	3.32	2.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.52)	3.26 ↑ (3.11)	2.55 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
35%

Draw
28.6%

Progreso
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.8%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28.5%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

River Plate Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Progreso (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frascarelli D. (G) 31. Olmos T. 23. Crespo E. 6. Moreira M. 13. Almeida C. (C) 14. De Leon F. 20. Lemos L. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 10. Vera A. 19. Pollero R. 9. Correa T.	1. Gentilio N. (G) 16. Trasante G. 4. Paolini M. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 40. Cougo A. 8. Colombino A. 29. Fernandez N. 10. Lemmo I. 18. Silva G. 19. Lopez F. 26. Copelotti M.
Substitutes
29. Chavero J. 25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 17. Escobar M. 3. Gissi D. 15. Jourdan E. 27. Lopez I. 2. Perez F. 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 7. Quintana J. 33. Triver F.	28. Asconeguy D. 13. Carroso H. 24. De Los Santos M. 7. Garcia A. 15. Hernandez R. 6. Kidd F. 11. Lopez P. 35. Mendez F. (G) 5. Pinheiro A. 17. Sosa F.
Coaches
Salazar R.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Pollero R. 🟨,
45+1', Lemmo I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Correa T. ↓, Chavero J. ↑,
61', De Leon F. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
66', Copelotti M. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
66', Colombino A. ↓, Pinheiro A. ↑,
71', Pollero R. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
72', Vera A. ↓, Escobar M. ↑,
75', Lopez F. ↓, Lopez P. ↑,
83', Lemos L. ↓, Triver F. ↑,
87', Lemmo I. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
87', Silva G. ↓, De Los Santos M. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 0.

River Plate is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Progreso has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

River Plate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 2:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.32%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.25	Boston River - River Plate Montevideo	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:3 ✺
24.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	0:2 ✺
11.08.25	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.09.25	Progreso - Miramar Misiones	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Boston River - Progreso	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Progreso - Danubio	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	3:1 ✺
09.08.25	Progreso - Cerro Largo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
23.03.25	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
19.10.24	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	2:0
09.06.24	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
21.04.24	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	2:2
09.10.21	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
12.06.21	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	4:0
29.03.21	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	3:2

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