Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Progreso		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3	2.65
	2.58	3	2.72
	2.68	3.12	2.89
	2.57	3.14	2.81	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.61	3.04	2.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.67)	3.03 ↓ (3.12)	2.77 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
36.1%

Draw
30.5%

Cerro Largo
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

30%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

29%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Progreso - Cerro Largo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mehring A. (G) 16. Trasante G. 3. Garcia F. 13. Carroso H. 15. Martin M. 5. Pinheiro A. 8. Colombino A. 11. Lopez N. 29. Fernandez N. 19. Silva J. 23. Copelotti M.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 14. Correa L. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 15. Assis S. 22. Bertocchi N. 5. Marcel S. 8. Garcia M. 9. Correa T. 10. Pandiani A.
Substitutes
2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 30. Codagnone A. 25. Dos Santos J. 7. Fernandez F. 10. Lemmo I. 22. Lopez F. 33. Requena A. (G) 21. Rivero J. 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G.	6. Alvez F. 11. Anasco M. 2. Chocobar G. F. 18. Daguerre D. 25. Jourdan E. 1. Moreno J. (G) 21. Pou J. 28. Ramos N. 19. Sellecchia F. 7. Viera G.
Coaches
Silva T.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Fracchia M. 🟨,
45+1', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bertocchi N. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
46', Garcia M. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
48', Marcel S. 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Correa T. ⚽,
57', Silva J. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
58', Pinheiro A. 🟨,
64', Codagnone A. 🟨,
65', Pinheiro A. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
76', Assis S. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,
81', Pandiani A. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
83', Lopez N. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
83', Copelotti M. ↓, Rivero J. ↑,
87', Correa T. ↓, Viera G. ↑,
90+1', Trasante G. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 0.

Recent form of Progreso has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cerro Largo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cerro Largo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.02%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLLT
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	Cerro Largo - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
09.08.25	Progreso - Cerro Largo	1:2
07.02.25	Cerro Largo - Progreso	4:1
30.11.24	Cerro Largo - Progreso	2:1
04.06.24	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1
17.10.21	Cerro Largo - Progreso	1:0
19.06.21	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:0
14.03.21	Cerro Largo - Progreso	1:0

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