Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 2

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Viju+ Sport


	Defensor Sporting		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.2
	1.72	3.5	4.35	Watch
	1.79	3.71	4.63
	1.85	3.3	4.2
	1.71	3.62	4.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.86)	3.54 ↓ (3.65)	4.49 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
53%

Draw
26.3%

River Plate Montevideo
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

25.8%

23.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

25%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.7%	4.3%	0%

Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Defensor Sporting will win (22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Defensor Sporting will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 13. Furtado N. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 15. Viacava J. 14. Pacifico P. 11. Agazzi L. 5. Barrios G. 25. Biscayzacu X. 16. Alvarez J. 9. Machado A. 90. Cambon A.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 2. Perez F. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 15. Jourdan E. 10. Vera A. 14. De Leon F. 18. Lopez I. 9. Correa T.
Substitutes
19. Abreu D. 6. Amaro M. 30. Cuello E. 29. Dudok R. 45. Ginella F. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 61. Saravia M. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.	22. Alfonso M. 6. Cabrera R. 23. Crespo E. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 3. Gissi D. 27. Lopez I. 7. Quintana J. 5. Rodriguez J. 30. Sanchez D. 11. Schiappacasse N.
Coaches
Ithurralde I.	Ribas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', De Leon F. ↓, Quintana J. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, De los Santos G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Barrios G. 🟨,
58', Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. ↓, Crespo E. ↑,
58', Lopez I. ↓, Schiappacasse N. ↑,
58', Jourdan E. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
68', Cambon A. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
75', Cabrera F. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
79', Barrios G. ↓, Amaro M. ↑,
84', Pacifico P. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
84', Biscayzacu X. ↓, Saravia M. ↑,
90+1', Vera A. 🟨,
90+4', Almeida C. 🟨,
90+4', Amaro M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

River Plate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Defensor Sporting is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:20. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Defensor Sporting - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 50.67%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Copa
06.08.25	Libertad San Carlos - Defensor Sporting	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.08.25	Boston River - Defensor Sporting	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
22.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:1 ✺
17.06.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLTWT
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.08.25	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
22.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
01.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2
08.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
16.10.24	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	0:1
19.07.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	0:1
14.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Uruguay Copa
10.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.11.23	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	0:1

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