Match Info

J2 League - Round 29

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday

Location: Egao Kenko Stadium (Kumamoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Roasso Kumamoto		Tokushima Vortis

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.95	2.87	2.3
	2.72	3.05	2.52	Watch
	2.92	3.25	2.49
	2.98	3.06	2.46	Watch
	2.91	3.22	2.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.82)	3.11 ↓ (3.16)	2.44 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roasso Kumamoto
32.3%

Draw
29.8%

Tokushima Vortis
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

29.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.1%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roasso Kumamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Tokushima Vortis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Roasso Kumamoto - Tokushima Vortis Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Tokushima will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 7 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sato S. (G) 3. Onishi R. 4. Hakamata Y. 24. Ri T. 9. Omoto Y. 21. Toyoda A. 6. Iwashita W. 17. Fujii K. 14. Shiohama R. 28. Kumashiro K. 10. Konagaya C.	1. Tanaka H. (G) 15. Yamakoshi K. 3. Yamada N. 5. Aoki H. 18. Elsinho 7. Kodama S. 28. Kanuma N. 42. Takagi Y. 27. Izuchukwu L. 10. Sugimoto T. 30. Tsuboi K.
Substitutes
5. Abe K. 18. Handai M. 13. Iihoshi A. 2. Kuroki K. 16. Matsuoka R. 15. Mishima S. 27. Negishi K. 23. Sato Y. (G) 7. Takemoto Y.	4. Kaique 29. Mitsui D. (G) 19. Miyazaki J. 40. Nagaki R. 13. Nishino T. 24. Takada S. 2. Tamukai T. 16. Watari D. 22. Yanagisawa K.
Coaches
Oki T.	Masuda K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', Yamada N. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Shiohama R. ⚽, Konagaya C. (A),
17', Kanuma N. 🟨,
21', 2 - 0, Kumashiro K. ⚽, Omoto Y. (A),
42', Konagaya C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sugimoto T. ↓, Nagaki R. ↑,
46', Izuchukwu L. ↓, Watari D. ↑,
46', Aoki H. ↓, Yanagisawa K. ↑,
57', 2 - 1, Takagi Y. ⚽,
65', Tsuboi K. ↓, Miyazaki J. ↑,
67', Elsinho ↓, Takada S. ↑,
67', Konagaya C. ↓, Handai M. ↑,
77', Kumashiro K. ↓, Matsuoka R. ↑,
83', Fujii K. ↓, Takemoto Y. ↑,
83', Omoto Y. ↓, Abe K. ↑,
83', Shiohama R. ↓, Iihoshi A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 2.

Kumamoto has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tokushima is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Kumamoto won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:18. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kumamoto won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Roasso Kumamoto - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.07%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 League
30.08.25	Kataller Toyama - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Omiya Ardija - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Fujieda MYFC	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Imabari - Roasso Kumamoto	3:2 ✺
03.08.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWLW
- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
30.08.25	Tokushima Vortis - Blaublitz Akita	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Tokushima Vortis - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	JEF United Chiba - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Vegalta Sendai - Tokushima Vortis	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Tokushima Vortis - Ehime	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
09.03.25	Tokushima Vortis - Roasso Kumamoto	0:0
06.10.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Tokushima Vortis	1:2
18.05.24	Tokushima Vortis - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2
27.09.23	Tokushima Vortis - Roasso Kumamoto	0:1
02.04.23	Roasso Kumamoto - Tokushima Vortis	1:1
06.07.22	Roasso Kumamoto - Tokushima Vortis	1:1
12.03.22	Tokushima Vortis - Roasso Kumamoto	2:2

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