Match Info

League Two - Round 12

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Bourne D. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Grimsby Town

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.60	1.96	Watch
	3.20	3.70	2.05
	3.10	3.35	2.06	Watch
	3.44	3.77	2.08
	3.1	3.68	2.11	Watch
	3.40	3.60	2.05
	3.22	3.58	2.04	Watch
	3.20	3.60	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (3.15)	3.61 ↑ (3.42)	2.05 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
28.7%

Draw
25.8%

Grimsby Town
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

26.6%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

24.9%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Grimsby Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grimsby Town than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Rochdale - Grimsby Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Grimsby Town will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Waller S. (G) 13. Adebayo-Rowling T. 44. Flint A. 3. Wilson K. 2. Tasker C. 8. Gilmour H. (C) 17. Adeeko B. 7. Hayes C. 14. Francis E. 45. Middleton G. 39. Brown D.	31. Pym C. (G) 5. Rodgers H. 2. Kacurri M. 12. Foulkes J. 15. Turi G. D. 14. Amaluzor J. 4. Green K. (C) 7. Walker J. 30. Vernam C. 39. Cook A. 9. Morgan I.
Substitutes
33. Beckwith S. 19. Hannant L. 40. Henderson I. 26. Sherring S. 11. Silcott-Duberry Z. 12. Spaven J. (G) 21. Taylor K.	23. Brown H. 28. Cartwright F. 1. Cartwright H. (G) 8. Doyle C. 10. Finch S. 50. Golding M. 11. Reynolds R.
Coaches
Watson I.	Artell D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Vernam C. 🟨,
20', Adeeko B. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Brown D. ⚽, Middleton G. (A),
42', Kacurri M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Adebayo-Rowling T. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
49', Francis E. 🟨,
50', Walker J. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Green K. ⚽,
65', Adeeko B. ↓, Beckwith S. ↑,
67', Hayes C. 🟨,
68', Watson I. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Walker J. ⚽,
75', Hayes C. ↓, Hannant L. ↑,
76', Amaluzor J. ↓, Finch S. ↑,
76', Walker J. ↓, Doyle C. ↑,
81', Taylor K. ↓, Henderson I. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Henderson I. ⚽,
89', Morgan I. ↓, Cartwright F. ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 13th and 15th).

In recent outings, Rochdale has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Grimsby is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Recently, Rochdale has faced a series of away games on the road.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Grimsby holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Rochdale: Bilongo B. (Inactive) East R. (Inactive) Ebanks-Landell E. (Inactive) Jenkins W. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive) Moss D. (Inactive) Pettit C. (Inactive) Rodney D. (Inactive) Smith J. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Grimsby: Andrews J. (Inactive) Gardner C. (Hamstring Injury) Pruti E. (Red Card) Shelton M. (Injury) Staunton R. (Injury).

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Rochdale has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Rochdale against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19:16	3	17
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15:22	-7	15

Outrights of English League Two for now

Grimsby: 6.5% Rochdale: 0.66%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
17.10.26	Crewe Alexandra - Rochdale	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Tranmere Rovers - Rochdale	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
06.10.26	Huddersfield Town - Rochdale	5:0 ✺
English League Two
03.10.26	Rochdale - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Fleetwood Town - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTLWW
- Grimsby Town
English League Two
17.10.26	Grimsby Town - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
10.10.26	Port Vale - Grimsby Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
06.10.26	Grimsby Town - Burton Albion	0:1 penalties ✺
English League Two
03.10.26	Grimsby Town - Shrewsbury Town	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Newport County - Grimsby Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.25	Rochdale - Grimsby Town	2:0
English League Two
11.03.23	Grimsby Town - Rochdale	1:0
13.08.22	Rochdale - Grimsby Town	0:1
English League Cup
14.08.18	Grimsby Town - Rochdale	0:2

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