Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Lerkendal Stadion (Trondheim)

Referee: Derevinskyi O. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	ARD, Sportschau, SWR Sport
Norway	VG+


	Rosenborg		Mainz

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2	Watch
	3.5	3.4	1.9
	3.7	3.35	1.92	Watch
	3.85	3.3	2.04
	2.75	3.22	2.44	Watch
	4.26	3.38	1.94	Watch
	2.82	3.4	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.82)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	2.09 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rosenborg
26.7%

Draw
28.3%

Mainz
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

29.4%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rosenborg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rosenborg's form might have worsened.

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.6%	14.6%	70.8%

Rosenborg - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Rosenborg will win (votes: 7 - 14.6%). Mainz will win (votes: 34 - 70.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 14.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 57.9% – 83.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mainz (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (15 of 20 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Rosenborg (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Mainz (votes: 16 - 76.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tangvik S. (G) 16. Witry A. F. 38. Ceide M. K. 21. Nemcik T. 19. Pereira A. 6. Vaananen S. 10. Selnaes O. (C) 7. Nordli S. 45. Reitan-Sunde J. 39. Islamovic D. 35. Ceide E. K.	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 17. Hollerbach B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung
Substitutes
8. Fossum I. 18. Holm N. 23. Jenssen U. 15. Mortensen J. 4. Racic L. 2. Reitan E. 9. Saeter O. 12. Sandberg R. (G) 60. Slordal E. 24. Sorum H. (G) 50. Volden H. 5. Zeidan M.	33. Batz D. (G) 37. Bobzien B. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 9. Nordin A. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Johansson A.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
34', Bell S. 🟨,
36', Kohr D. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Islamovic D. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
64', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
82', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
82', Bell S. ↓, Leitsch M. ↑,
86', Pereira A. ↓, Jenssen U. ↑,
86', Reitan-Sunde J. ↓, Saeter O. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Saeter O. ⚽, Selnaes O. (A),
90+2', Ceide M. K. ↓, Fossum I. ↑,
90+4', Nordli S. ↓, Holm N. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Rosenborg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mainz is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rosenborg BK
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Hammarby - Rosenborg	0:1 ✺
07.08.25	Rosenborg - Hammarby	0:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
03.08.25	KFUM-Kameratene Oslo - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Banga Gargždai - Rosenborg	0:2 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
27.07.25	Rosenborg - Tromsø	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTLWW
- Mainz 05
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Mainz	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Mainz - Strasbourg	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Mainz - Seekirchen	5:0 ✺
16.07.25	Saarbrücken - Mainz	1:4 ✺
11.07.25	Bayern Alzenau - Mainz	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTWWW

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