Match Info

3. Liga - Round 29

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion an der Hafenstrasse (Essen)

Referee: Nouhoum A. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Rot-Weiß Essen		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.62	4.15	4.55
	1.65	4.61	4.47
	1.62	4.46	4.42	Watch
	1.62	4	4
	1.65	4.02	4.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.68)	4.19 ↑ (4.02)	4.43 ↑ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rot-Weiß Essen
57%

Draw
22.1%

Erzgebirge Aue
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

22.9%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

22.4%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rot-Weiß Essen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Essen than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rot Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rot-Weiß Essen (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rot-Weiß Essen will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Golz J. (G) 37. Hofmann J. 4. Schultz M. (C) 23. Rios Alonso J. 19. Bouebari F. 16. Reisig R. 26. Musel T. 7. Safi R. 24. Mizuta K. 14. Brumme L. 20. Janssen M.	1. Mannel M. (C) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 7. Weinhauer E. 5. Simnica L. 8. Clausen M. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 24. Ehlers J. 15. Bar M.
Substitutes
11. Abiama D. 9. Cuber Potocnik J. 15. Huning B. 18. Kaiser N. 2. Kostka M. 33. Kraulich T. 10. Obuz M. 39. Swajkowski G. 35. Wienand F. (G)	9. Bornschein R. 20. Fabisch J. 19. Guttau J. 38. Kretschmer T. (G) 22. Lord L. (G) 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 34. Stefaniak M. 11. Uhlmann E.
Coaches
Koschinat U.	Dabrowski C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
28', 1 - 0, Musel T. ⚽, Reisig R. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Hofmann J. ⚽, Brumme L. (A),
37', 3 - 0, Janssen M. ⚽, Hofmann J. (A),
45+2', 3 - 1, Ehlers J. ⚽, Gunther-Schmidt J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Clausen M. ↓, Stefaniak M. ↑,
46', Weinhauer E. ↓, Uhlmann E. ↑,
59', Collins J. 🟨,
61', 3 - 2, Bar M. ⚽,
67', Safi R. ↓, Obuz M. ↑,
67', Brumme L. ↓, Abiama D. ↑,
72', Bouebari F. 🟨,
74', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
74', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Guttau J. ↑,
83', 4 - 2, Mizuta K. ⚽,
83', Janssen M. ↓, Cuber Potocnik J. ↑,
90+1', Mizuta K. ↓, Swajkowski G. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Essen won 1.

Rot-Weiß Essen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aue is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Rot-Weiß Essen is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Rot-Weiß Essen won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Rot-Weiß Essen won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 2.3:1.3).

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

RW Essen: 12.58%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	RW Essen	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rot-Weiß Essen
German 3 Bundesliga
07.03.26	Hoffenheim II - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:4 ✺
04.03.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Waldhof Mannheim	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hansa Rostock - Rot-Weiß Essen	3:2 ✺
21.02.26	Osnabrück - Rot-Weiß Essen	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Jahn Regensburg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLLW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
07.03.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Alemannia Aachen	1:3 ✺
03.03.26	1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
05.10.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:2
12.04.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	4:2
10.11.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1
19.01.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1
20.08.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
11.03.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1
02.09.22	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1

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