Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 - Round 26

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Ryazan		Avangard Kursk

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.18	4.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.22)	4.18 ↑ (3.74)	4.72 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryazan
57%

Draw
22.8%

Avangard Kursk
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

25.5%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

25.4%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryazan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ryazan's performance.

Avangard Kursk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Avangard Kursk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryazan than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ryazan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avangard Kursk than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avangard Kursk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ryazan - Avangard Kursk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Mishutin M. ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Pogrebnev N. ⚽,
41', 3 - 0, Prokurorov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 4 - 0, Evgenjev E. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ryazan won 2.

Ryazan has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Avangard Kursk has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Avangard Kursk could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Both teams have recently been through a succession of home fixtures.

Ryazan carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Ryazan has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:9 (averaging 1:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ryazan against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 7:2 goals (averaging 1.2:0.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ryazan	26	15	8	3	47:15	32	53
9	Kursk	26	8	8	10	31:38	-7	32

Last Results with these Odds

Ryazan - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 42.94%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Avangard Kursk - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 31.57%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryazan
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
30.09.26	Ryazan - Zenit Penza	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Volna Kovernino - Ryazan	0:2 ✺
17.09.26	Ryazan - Saturn Ramenskoye	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ryazan - Rotor 2	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
08.09.26	Ryazan - Spartak Kostroma	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWTWL
- Avangard Kursk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
26.09.26	Avangard Kursk - Rotor 2	1:1 ✺
21.09.26	Kvant Obninsk - Avangard Kursk	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Avangard Kursk - Salyut Belgorod	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Avangard Kursk - Oryol	3:2 ✺
29.08.26	Avangard Kursk - Rodina Moscow 3	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
13.06.26	Avangard Kursk - Ryazan	0:0
Russian FNL 2 Group 3
24.10.22	Avangard Kursk - Ryazan	3:0
27.08.22	Ryazan - Avangard Kursk	1:1
19.10.21	Ryazan - Avangard Kursk	1:0
15.08.21	Avangard Kursk - Ryazan	0:3
15.06.21	Avangard Kursk - Ryazan	2:0
09.08.20	Ryazan - Avangard Kursk	2:0

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