Match Info

J2/J3 League - Round 9

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium (Okinawa)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Ryūkyū		Roasso Kumamoto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.25	1.9	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2
	4.39	3.52	1.79	Watch
	3.7	3.5	1.75
	4.71	3.57	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (3.12)	3.41 ↑ (3.31)	1.84 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryūkyū
23.3%

Draw
26.9%

Roasso Kumamoto
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

28%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

27%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryūkyū has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ryūkyū's form might have worsened.

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roasso Kumamoto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ryūkyū, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roasso Kumamoto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Ryūkyū - Roasso Kumamoto Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Kumamoto will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Kawashima K. (G) 3. Kikuchi S. 35. Chiba K. 27. Funabashi Y. 15. Araki R. 46. Ikeda R. 16. Ihori K. 7. Motegi S. 18. Ueno Y. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 9. Asakawa H.	1. Sato S. (G) 5. Kobayashi K. 24. Ri T. 6. Iwashita W. 41. Omoto Y. 8. Kamimura S. 15. Mishima S. 39. Aoki S. 13. Iihoshi A. 7. Fujii K. 11. Bae Jeong-Min
Substitutes
8. Horiuchi H. 39. Ihara A. 11. Ishiura T. 26. Jennings C. 17. Kato Y. 1. Sato H. (G) 19. Sato M. 89. Takagi D. 28. Tsuha J.	18. Handai M. 14. Ishihara O. 10. Katori Y. 2. Kuroki K. 22. Matsuda E. 25. Nasu K. 27. Negishi K. 23. Sato Y. (G) 4. Yakushida R.
Coaches
Hirakawa T.	Katanosaka T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Funabashi Y. 🟨,
39', Iwashita W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Iwashita W. ⚽, Bae Jeong-Min (A),
67', Bae Jeong-Min ↓, Handai M. ↑,
67', Omoto Y. ↓, Matsuda E. ↑,
68', Ueno Y. ↓, Ishiura T. ↑,
68', Motegi S. ↓, Kato Y. ↑,
73', Iihoshi A. ↓, Ishihara O. ↑,
73', Mishima S. ↓, Negishi K. ↑,
76', Ikeda R. ↓, Horiuchi H. ↑,
76', Tomidokoro Y. ↓, Sato M. ↑,
82', Kobayashi K. ↓, Yakushida R. ↑,
87', Funabashi Y. ↓, Jennings C. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J2/J3 League (Placement matches: ))

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Kumamoto will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ryūkyū won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Ryūkyū won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Oita Trinita - Ryūkyū	2:3 ✺
14.03.26	Ryūkyū - Renofa Yamaguchi	1:2 penalties ✺
08.03.26	Gainare Tottori - Ryūkyū	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Ryūkyū - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWLLL
- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 J3 League
29.03.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Kagoshima United	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Gainare Tottori	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Reilac Shiga - Roasso Kumamoto	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Roasso Kumamoto - Oita Trinita	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
21.06.23	Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū	3:2 penalties
Japan J2 League
30.07.22	Ryūkyū - Roasso Kumamoto	2:0
08.05.22	Roasso Kumamoto - Ryūkyū	0:2

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