Match Info

Copa Sul-Sudeste - Round 6

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.33	3.1	3.27
	2.24	2.99	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3	3
	2.19	3.02	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.5)	3.03 ↓ (3.3)	3.17 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
40.9%

Draw
30.2%

Caxias
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

27.8%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caxias might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caxias could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

São Bernardo - Caxias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Junior Oliveira (G) 37. Davi D. 9. Felipe Garcia (C) 25. Gonzaga W. 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 31. Lucas Fernandes 7. Lucas Rian 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio	1. Busatto G. (G) 7. Calyson 2. Felipe Albuquerque 11. Gaspar 5. Grigor 3. Ianson 10. Joao Lucas 8. Matheus Nunes 4. Mauricio Ribeiro (C) 6. Roberto 9. Salatiel
Substitutes
23. Arthur Bassi (G) 20. Felipe Rodrigues 8. Foguinho 39. Hwaskar 35. Jemerson 19. Neto Costa 22. Pablo Dyego 6. Para 29. Pedrinho	15. Breno Santos 18. Felipe Rangel 19. Jhonatan Ribeiro 14. Mancha 12. Marcelo (G) 22. Marcelo Freitas 21. Matheus Anjos 23. Ravanelli 16. Victor Sa 17. Vitor Feijao 20. Vitor Gabriel 13. Windson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Helder Maciel 🟥,
9', Davi D. ↓, Jemerson ↑,
37', Roberto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Matheus Nunes ↓, Ravanelli ↑,
46', Roberto ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
62', Lucas Rian ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
62', Hyoran ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
72', Joao Lucas ↓, Marcelo Freitas ↑,
78', Calyson ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
82', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Felipe Rodrigues ↑,
82', Mario Sergio ↓, Para ↑,
82', Junior Oliveira 🟨,
85', 0 - 1, Ravanelli ⚽,
88', 1 - 1, Felipe Garcia ⚽,
89', Gaspar ↓, Vitor Feijao ↑,

Preview

São Bernardo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Caxias has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1:0).

Including home matches between the teams, São Bernardo won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.02%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Tombense - São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	São Bernardo - Goiás	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	São Bernardo - Cianorte	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTWWL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.26	Amazonas - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Caxias - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.26	Caxias - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Volta Redonda - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	Avaí - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
05.10.25	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:0
13.09.25	Caxias - São Bernardo	0:0
18.05.25	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:0
04.08.24	São Bernardo - Caxias	2:0

Upcoming Matches