Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 10

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Bernardo		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.85	3.05	4.3
	1.85	3.36	4.9
	1.81	3.3	4.77	Watch
	1.83	3.1	4.4
	1.84	3.37	4.85	Watch
	1.85	3.05	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.02)	3.22 ↑ (3.07)	4.61 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
50.8%

Draw
29%

Guarani
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

30.2%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

29.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

São Bernardo - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Guarani will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel (C) 13. Matheus Salustiano 25. Pedro Carrerette 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 17. Romisson 31. Lucas Lima 95. Para 11. Daniel Fabricio 8. Leo Jaba 9. Rodolfo	1. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 2. Yan Henrique 3. Raphael (C) 4. Lucao 6. Emerson 5. Nathan Camargo 8. Caio Mello 10. Joao Victor 11. Isaque 7. Rafael Bilu 9. Joao Marcelo
Substitutes
6. Arthur Henrique 55. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 87. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho 77. Guilherme Queiroz 21. Hugo Sanches 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 5. Kadi Silva 22. Leo Duarte 30. Lucas Rian 4. Rafael Forster	20. Anderson Leite 13. Caio Dias 15. Daniel 19. Deni Junior 12. Emerson Junior (G) 21. Geovane 17. Luiz Miguel 18. Mateus Sarara 23. Nascimento R. 14. Pedro Manoel 16. Titi 22. Yuji
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Mauricio Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Romisson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Daniel Fabricio ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
46', Pedro Carrerette ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
46', Rodolfo ↓, Rafael Forster ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Guilherme Queiroz ⚽, Rodrigo Ferreira (A),
62', Para 🟨,
62', Isaque ↓, Luiz Miguel ↑,
62', Joao Victor ↓, Anderson Leite ↑,
68', Rodrigo Ferreira 🟨,
73', Alex Alves 🟨,
73', Yan Henrique ↓, Nascimento R. ↑,
78', Leo Jaba ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
81', Lucao ↓, Deni Junior ↑,
81', Emerson ↓, Titi ↑,
83', Lucas Lima ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,

Preview

São Bernardo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Guarani is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

São Bernardo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match São Bernardo is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
29.01.25	São Bernardo - Santos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLTWW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.02.25	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.02.25	Ponte Preta - Guarani	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	Guarani - Água Santa	4:0 ✺
02.02.25	Guarani - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
29.01.25	Mirassol - Guarani	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
24.01.24	Guarani - São Bernardo	0:0
15.02.23	Guarani - São Bernardo	1:5
19.03.22	São Bernardo - Guarani	0:0

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