Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DAZN
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	ERT 2
Israel	Sport 3
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	DAZN, DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	DAZN


	São Paulo		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.50
	2.25	2.92	3.25	Watch
	2.46	2.92	3.55
	2.31	3.05	3.43	Watch
	2.4	2.8	3.45
	2.42	3.09	3.18	Watch
	2.43	2.95	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.24)	2.97 ↓ (3.25)	3.34 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
39.9%

Draw
31.8%

Boca Juniors
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.2%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

31.3%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

São Paulo - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Boca Juniors (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Boca Juniors (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 22. Duarte D. 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 19. Lucas Ramon 94. Danielzinho 8. Marcos Antonio 12. Iago Borduchi 37. Artur 43. Santana G. 10. Luciano (C)	1. Montero A. (G) 17. Lozano L. 2. Di Lollo L. 42. Herrera F. 3. Blanco L. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 19. Flores L. 16. Miguel Merentiel 20. Velasco A.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 48. Djhordney 11. Ferreira 28. Newton 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 49. Ryan Francisco 2. Toloi R. 27. Victor Sa 18. Wendell	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 11. Angel Romero 8. Belmonte T. 27. Braida M. 12. Brey L. (G) 7. Carlos Palacios 4. Figal J. 9. Gimenez M. 24. Gorosito D. 26. Pellegrino M. 30. Valencia E. 22. Villa S.
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Arruabarrena R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Danielzinho ↓, Djhordney ↑,
49', Djhordney 🟨,
60', 0 - 1, Lozano L. ⚽, Flores L. (A),
62', Velasco A. ↓, Villa S. ↑,
64', Lucas Ramon ↓, Ryan Francisco ↑,
64', Santana G. ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
64', Sabino ↓, Ferreira ↑,
77', Delgado M. ↓, Belmonte T. ↑,
77', Flores L. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
85', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
88', Iago Borduchi ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Duarte D. ⚽, Artur (A),
90+3', Angel Romero 🟨,
90+4', Artur 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boca Juniors is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Boca Juniors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

São Paulo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Paulo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Copa Sudamericana for now

Boca Juniors: 34.22%

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.3%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Boca Juniors - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWWL
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.09.26	Boca Juniors - Central Córdoba	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Boca Juniors - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.09.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Boca Juniors	2:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.08.26	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.09.26	Boca Juniors - São Paulo	1:0

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