The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
São Paulo 45.4%
Draw 27.8%
Vasco da Gama 26.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
43%
28.3%
28.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.2%
29.1%
27.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
São Paulo - Vasco da Gama Predictions
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 19 - 100%). Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 100% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 14th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
In recent outings, São Paulo has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Vasco is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Vasco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, São Paulo has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.
São Paulo is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, São Paulo has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:24 (averaging 1.5:1.2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for São Paulo against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 20:9 goals (averaging 2:0.9 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
10
Sao Paulo
30
11
6
13
35:35
0
39
14
Vasco
29
9
8
12
36:42
-6
35
Last Results with these Odds
São Paulo - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 43.04%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.
Vasco da Gama - the odds 3.32 are the expected chance of winning is 28.65%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.
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