Match Info

Date: 8 July 2021, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Sūduva Marijampolė		Valmiera

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.6	Watch
	2.15	2.95	3.25
	2.15	3.2	3	Watch
	2.06	3.15	3.15
	2.07	3.21	3.21
	2.2	3	3	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.67)	3.13 ↓ (3.75)	3.2 ↓ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sūduva Marijampolė
42.9%

Draw
28.9%

Valmiera
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.1%

24.5%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

21.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sūduva Marijampolė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sūduva Marijampolė's form might have worsened.

Valmiera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valmiera's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sūduva Marijampolė, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.8%	18.4%	15.8%

Sūduva Marijampolė - Valmiera Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Sūduva will win (votes: 25 - 65.8%). Valmiera will win (votes: 6 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 18.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sūduva: 50.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Sūduva is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Valmiera is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Sūduva have a series of guest games.

Sūduva will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
02.07.21	Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
25.06.21	Riteriai - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
22.06.21	Nevėžis - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
19.06.21	Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:1 ✺
11.06.21	Sūduva Marijampolė - Žalgiris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTWTL
- Valmiera FK
Latvian Virsliga
02.07.21	Valmiera - BFC Daugavpils	4:0 ✺
25.06.21	Rīgas FS - Valmiera	1:2 ✺
21.06.21	Riga - Valmiera	1:0 ✺
17.06.21	Valmiera - Metta	2:0 ✺
13.06.21	BFC Daugavpils - Valmiera	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
01.11.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Banga Gargždai	✺

Sūduva Marijampolė - Valmiera