Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 15

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Manta

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.38	4.1	7
	1.35	4.45	8.2	Watch
	1.38	4.59	9.15
	1.36	4.53	9.16	Watch
	1.33	4	8
	1.35	4.5	9.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.4)	4.38 ↑ (4.35)	8.47 ↑ (7.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
68%

Draw
21.1%

Manta
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

21.4%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

20.2%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Manta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manta than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	16.7%	25%

SD Aucas - Manta Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Manta will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aucas: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 6. Spina A. L. 10. Preciado E. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 33. Porozo S.	12. Zambrano F. (G) 45. Cuero I. 16. Quintero D. 24. Moscarelli O. 31. Mina G. 19. Alman J. (C) 70. Nazareno J. 5. Ramirez B. 6. Jimenez J. 27. Troya J. 9. Blanco J.
Substitutes
29. Arroyo L. 11. Bolanos R. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 91. Luna D. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.	17. Angulo J. 18. Beltramone E. 57. Burbano S. 7. Cabezas D. 20. Chala J. 1. Chavez W. (G) 23. Medina A. 14. Mina J. 4. Nazareno J. 52. Rialpe J.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Carvajal Burgos J. E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Porozo S. ⚽, Guzman P. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Quintero D. ⚽, Ramirez B. (A),
32', Preciado E. 🟨,
44', 2 - 1, Preciado E. ⚽, Ontaneda J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 3 - 1, Porozo S. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
58', Troya J. ↓, Medina A. ↑,
58', Ramirez B. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
60', Moscarelli O. 🟨,
64', Cuero I. ↓, Nazareno J. ↑,
67', Porozo S. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
67', Preciado E. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
76', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
84', Nazareno J. 🟨,
84', Alman J. ↓, Rialpe J. ↑,
84', Mina G. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
86', Quinonez R. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
86', Guzman P. ↓, Luna D. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Aucas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aucas is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Copa
21.05.26	San Antonio - SD Aucas	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
27.04.26	SD Aucas - Delfín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWLW
- Manta FC
Ecuadorian Copa
22.05.26	9 de Octubre - Manta	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.05.26	Manta - Emelec	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Manta - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Manta	1:1 ✺
27.04.26	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.09.25	Manta - SD Aucas	1:1
17.05.25	SD Aucas - Manta	1:1
22.08.21	SD Aucas - Manta	3:0
21.03.21	Manta - SD Aucas	1:1

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