Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 6

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Orense

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.2	3.9
	1.72	3.45	4.55	Watch
	1.75	3.55	5.44
	1.71	3.55	5.09	Watch
	1.62	3.25	5
	1.76	3.56	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.84)	3.44 ↑ (3.17)	4.72 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
53.6%

Draw
26.8%

Orense
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

29.5%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

28.3%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	15.8%	5.3%

SD Aucas - Orense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aucas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 2. Morales S. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 16. Gustavino L. 6. Spina A. L. 11. Bolanos R. 21. Guzman P. 29. Arroyo L. 18. Mena A. 7. Miranda B.	12. Silva R. (G) 31. Velasco P. (C) 6. Callegari S. 3. Mina S. 15. Caicedo B. 7. Vasquez S. 25. Jaramilo R. 77. Vinan B. 10. Burgoa V. 11. Herrera A. 17. Caicedo E.
Substitutes
52. Caicedo J. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 91. Luna D. 55. Olaya V. 33. Porozo S. 10. Preciado E. 28. Quinonez R. 5. Serpa T. 89. Sosa A. 57. Vera M.	8. Armas D. 52. Bravo Y. 9. Charpentier P. 53. Garces L. 50. Hernandez E. 5. Lorenzo A. 57. Mairongo S. 51. Ortiz C. 22. Ortiz J. (G) 14. Pluas E. 56. Rojas A. 54. Zambrano Pesantez E. S.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Robles A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Mena A. ⚽, Arroyo L. (A),
12', Zova A. 🟨,
35', Caicedo B. 🟨,
37', Arroyo L. 🟨,
39', Mina S. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Guzman P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Zova A. ↓, Olaya V. ↑,
46', Caicedo B. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
63', Jaramilo R. ↓, Pluas E. ↑,
63', Mina S. ↓, Lorenzo A. ↑,
63', Bolanos R. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
67', Gustavino L. 🟨,
75', Silva R. 🟨,
76', 3 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽,
77', Burgoa V. ↓, Garces L. ↑,
82', Caicedo E. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
84', Garces L. 🟨,
85', 3 - 1, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ⚽, Garces L. (A),
86', Arroyo L. ↓, Porozo S. ↑,
86', Guzman P. ↓, Preciado E. ↑,
90', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
90+8', 3 - 2, Vasquez S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', Morales S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2.

Recent form of Aucas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Orense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aucas is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:1. (average 1.7:0.2).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.03.26	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Guayaquil City - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTLTT
- Orense SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.03.26	Orense - Mushuc Runa	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Emelec - Orense	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Orense - Manta	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Orense - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.02.26	Técnico Universitario - Orense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.09.25	SD Aucas - Orense	0:0
24.05.25	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1
02.08.24	Orense - SD Aucas	4:0
02.03.24	SD Aucas - Orense	2:0
03.12.23	Orense - SD Aucas	1:2
23.06.23	SD Aucas - Orense	2:0
09.07.22	SD Aucas - Orense	2:0

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