Match Info

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	SPAL		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.3
	2.25	3	3.4
	2.28	2.9	3.35
	2.34	3.06	3.65
	2.2	3	3.6
	2.23	2.98	3.62	Watch
	2.28	3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.27)	3.01 ↑ (3)	3.47 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
41.7%

Draw
31.3%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

31.2%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

32%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	29.4%	29.4%

SPAL - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Südtirol will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for SPAL: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 11 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

SPAL has the most likely position - 11 (7.05%), has project points - 51, has currently - 13, has a small chance of relegated (13%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a small chance of promoted (9%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 14 (7.91%), has project points - 49, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (19%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 30, small importance 25, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

SPAL is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Südtirol is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

SPAL could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

SPAL will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
22.10.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	5:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Genoa - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cittadella - SPAL	0:0 ✺
08.10.22	Frosinone - SPAL	2:0 ✺
01.10.22	SPAL - Genoa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLTLL
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
22.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Parma	1:0 ✺
16.10.22	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:2 ✺
09.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Benevento	1:1 ✺
01.10.22	Palermo - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
17.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWTWT

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