The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
SPAL 23.4%
Draw 26.8%
Genoa 49.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28%
28.3%
43.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.7%
27.6%
42.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genoa's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SPAL, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
26.7%
20%
53.3%
SPAL - Genoa Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Genoa will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 28.1% โ 78.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
SPAL has the most likely position - 13 (6.5%), has project points - 51, has currently - 9, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a small chance of promoted (10%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).
Genoa has the most likely position - 1 (14.09%), has project points - 63, has currently - 11, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), has a chance of promoted (37%), has a small chance of win league (14%).
This event has quality37, importance37, match rating37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 0.
SPAL is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Recent matches Genoa is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Genoa will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 7 head-to-head matches SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.
Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.
Italy
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