Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)


	SPAL		Nuova Cosenza

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.93	3.2	4.1
	1.82	3.25	4.6
	1.92	3.1	4.2
	1.94	3.33	4.65
	1.73	3.4	5
	1.95	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.92	3.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.76)	3.25 ↓ (3.4)	4.43 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
49.9%

Draw
28.9%

Nuova Cosenza
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.2%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

27.4%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Nuova Cosenza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

SPAL - Nuova Cosenza Predictions

Users Predictions: SPAL will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

SPAL has the most likely position - 14 (7.43%), has project points - 47, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (21%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Cosenza has the most likely position - 19 (10.5%), has project points - 43, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 27, importance 40, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The competitors look crappy now.

Cosenza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently SPAL have a series of guest games.

In this match SPAL is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Coppa Italia
18.10.22	Genoa - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Cittadella - SPAL	0:0 ✺
08.10.22	Frosinone - SPAL	2:0 ✺
01.10.22	SPAL - Genoa	0:2 ✺
17.09.22	Como - SPAL	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTLLT
- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
15.10.22	Nuova Cosenza - Genoa	1:2 ✺
08.10.22	Reggina - Nuova Cosenza	3:0 ✺
30.09.22	Nuova Cosenza - Como	3:1 ✺
17.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
10.09.22	Nuova Cosenza - Bari	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.04.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	2:2
27.11.21	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	0:1
06.02.21	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	1:1
03.10.20	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	1:1

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