Match Info

Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta (Sabadell)


	Sabadell		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.00	3.00
	2.22	3.05	3.15
	2.28	3.25	3.27
	2.37	3	3.18	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3
	2.31	3.04	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.17)	3.02 ↓ (3.38)	3.15 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sabadell
40.5%

Draw
30.3%

Real Madrid Castilla
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

27.4%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sabadell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sabadell than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Real Madrid Castilla aligns with the current prediction.

Sabadell - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fuoli D. (G) 14. Astals D. 15. Lazaro Cervera J. C. 5. Bonaldo 3. Fornes G. 20. Orriols Cerarols A. 22. Liameed Q. 23. Priego J. 10. Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 19. Lopez J. 9. Rodri	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 23. Fati L. 21. Aguado D. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 16. Pitarch T. 47. Ciria A. 20. Fortuny P. 10. Palacios C. 29. Ortega J.
Substitutes
24. Aguilar Elizalde E. 2. Aleman C. 17. Coscia A. 4. Garcia C. 16. Godoy A. 11. Martinez R. 8. Moreno X. 13. Ortega J. (G) 7. Ripoll T. 25. Ruiz N. (G) 21. Sergi 26. Tolosa A.	8. Angel M. 18. Fettal R. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 25. Mestre S. (G) 6. Perea C. 46. Rezola M. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 51. Ukpeigbe M. 7. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Priego J. ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Astals D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 🟨,
57', Rodri ↓, Aguilar Elizalde E. ↑,
57', Ramirez Carrasco M. A. ↓, Ripoll T. ↑,
57', Astals D. ↓, Coscia A. ↑,
66', Lazaro Cervera J. C. ↓, Aleman C. ↑,
67', Ciria A. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
79', Fati L. 🟨,
80', Ortega J. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
84', Lopez J. ↓, Sergi ↑,
88', Palacios C. 🟨,
90', 3 - 0, Priego J. ⚽,
90+2', Pitarch T. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+9', 🟥,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabadell won 1.

Sabadell is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sabadell might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Sabadell won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sabadell won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Sabadell - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.74%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 3.11 are the expected chance of winning is 29.82%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sabadell FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	2:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
23.05.26	Tarazona - Sabadell	0:2 ✺
16.05.26	Sabadell - Antequera	0:1 ✺
08.05.26	Atlético Madrid B - Sabadell	4:3 ✺
03.05.26	Sabadell - Real Murcia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	CD Guadalajara - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
17.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:3 ✺
09.05.26	Cacereño - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
02.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	2:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.03.22	Sabadell - Real Madrid Castilla	0:2
20.11.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	3:0
Spanish LaLiga2
31.05.14	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	2:1
04.01.14	Sabadell - Real Madrid Castilla	3:2
16.02.13	Sabadell - Real Madrid Castilla	3:1
14.09.12	Real Madrid Castilla - Sabadell	2:3

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