Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/64-finals

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)


	Sacramento Republic		El Farolito

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.19	6.25	10.5	Watch
	1.28	5.7	8.6
	1.25	5.81	8.59
	1.53	3.48	7.05	Watch
	1.25	5	8
	1.26	5.3	8.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↑ (1.09)	5.15 ↓ (8)	8.52 ↓ (23.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
71.3%

Draw
17.9%

El Farolito
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84.5%

11.5%

3.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sacramento Republic's form might have worsened.

El Farolito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting El Farolito's recent form is better than expected.

Sacramento Republic - El Farolito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (2 - 0)
95', 1 - 0, Ajago F. ⚽,
102', Kipre S. 🟥,
120+3', 2 - 0, Ajago F. ⚽,

Preview

El Farolito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sacramento Republic is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sacramento Republic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
14.03.26	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Sacramento Republic - Tulsa	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	0:1 penalties ✺
25.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Miami	0:1 ✺
22.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWLLW
- El Farolito SC
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Sacramento Republic - El Farolito	1:0 ✺
01.04.25	Monterey Bay - El Farolito	1:2 ✺
19.03.25	Real Monarchs - El Farolito	1:3 ET ✺
16.04.24	Oakland Roots - El Farolito	2:1 ET ✺
02.04.24	El Farolito - Central Valley Fuego	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 45.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
16.04.25	Sacramento Republic - El Farolito	1:0

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